1°Outside Insights: Severe Storms Possible in New England Each Hot Afternoon/Evening

Although heat has taken the headlines and will constitute a heat wave for New England this week, challenging records, Matt Noyes explains severe thunderstorms may break out at least in some of New England each afternoon this week. It’s a good week to keep our app handy with notifications turned on.

Current Weather Overview

A dome of hot air and high pressure is dominating the eastern United States, but this is not devoid of thunderstorms. We have a chance of severe thunderstorms each afternoon in New England over the coming days, including today. Out west, cold front is slicing into this hot dome, moving across the Northern Plains, bringing flooding rains, and Gulf of Mexico moisture is pluming north from a developing tropical system impacting the south coast of Texas into Mexico.

Heavy Rain Elsewhere

  • Flooding Rain: Portions of northern Minnesota could see up to nine inches of rain overnight, posing severe flash flooding potential.
  • Tropical System: A foot of rain is falling in the Gulf of Mexico due to a developing tropical system.

Thunderstorm Energy

Despite limited forecast precipitation in our area, there is a ton of energy in the atmosphere. Heat and humidity create what we call “convective available potential energy,” or energy available for thunderstorms, measured in joules per kilogram. For the next few days (Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday), we have over 4000 joules per kilogram in eastern New York and over 3700 in northern and central New England, extending into northern Massachusetts. This is a powder keg of instability—just waiting for something to touch off those storms.

Weather Forecast

Tuesday to Thursday:

  • Temperatures: Highs reaching 95 to 100 degrees.
  • Feels Like: 100 to 105 degrees.
  • Storms: Isolated but strong thunderstorms with damaging wind gusts, frequent lightning, and the chance of hail.

Wednesday and Thursday:

  • Locations: Isolated storms possible as far south as northern Massachusetts Wednesday and perhaps as far south as the Massachusetts Turnpike Thursday.

Friday into Saturday:

  • Increased Storms: More scattered thunderstorms expected as the heat starts to break down.
  • Changing Air: As we head into Saturday, expect a number of showers as the air changes over.

Tips and Tools

  • Stay Informed: Keep notifications on our app to get alerts for severe weather and thunderstorms.
  • Stay Cool: With high temperatures and humidity, it’s crucial to stay hydrated and find cool places if you don’t have air conditioning (see the Noyes’ Notes/1°Outside Today video for more on that).
  • Accurate Forecasts: Use our app to set your location for the most accurate forecast and to find the chance of rain on any given day.

This provides an insight into the meteorology behind the forecast for the next few days. Stay safe and cool out there!