In today’s Noyes’ Notes, Danielle Noyes reports a chilly Wednesday start with less wind than yesterday, though gusts over 20 mph may still occur, particularly in eastern New England. The dry and gusty conditions are keeping the fire danger elevated, especially as drought conditions continue to spread across the region. Today’s temperatures will peak in the 40s across southern New England, with cooler 30s along the Canadian border and the Crown of Maine. Ocean-effect clouds could develop along the coast as colder air moves over warmer waters, and gusts will remain steady at 20–30 mph, particularly in Cape Cod. Tonight will be even colder, with lows dropping into the teens for northern New England, 20s in much of the region, and around 30 in eastern Massachusetts. This cold pattern will stick around through at least the end of the week.
National Weather Summary
A large, complex weather pattern is impacting both the western and central United States. In the West, an active Atmospheric River is delivering significant rain to lowland areas and heavy snow to the higher elevations of the Cascades and northern California mountains, bringing a risk of localized flooding, especially near the Washington and Oregon coastlines. This Pacific moisture is expected to shift slowly southward, extending into coastal northern California, bringing the potential for several inches of rain and upwards of a foot or more of snow in the mountains, with snow levels fluctuating between 3000 and 7000 feet depending on location and timing.
In the central U.S., an eastward-moving low-pressure system is combining with Gulf moisture to produce widespread showers and thunderstorms across the Lower Mississippi, Tennessee, and Ohio Valleys. These storms may bring localized heavy rain and isolated flash flooding, particularly where antecedent conditions have left soils saturated. Rainfall will shift eastward on Thursday, bringing additional wet weather across the Ohio Valley and into the Appalachians. A secondary, weaker low over the Southeast may also spark scattered thunderstorms near the Gulf Coast, where a few may be capable of brief strong wind gusts or an isolated tornado.
Temperature-wise, much of the country will experience above-average warmth for mid-November, with daytime highs running 5-15°F above normal across the Great Plains, Midwest, and Southeast. In contrast, more seasonable to cooler-than-normal temperatures are expected across the West due to repeated cold fronts, as well as in the Northeast, where a recent frontal passage has ushered in cooler, dry air.
Northeast Weather Story
High pressure is now in firm control across the Northeast, leading to clear skies and crisp conditions. Following Tuesday’s intense wind gusts, northerly winds will remain lighter overall today, generally around 5-15 mph, with higher gusts lingering over Cape Cod and the Islands.
Clear skies combined with diminishing winds overnight will lead to efficient radiational cooling Wednesday night, with low temperatures expected to dip into the upper teens and low 20s in northern New England and the Adirondacks, while most other areas will see lows in the mid to upper 20s. The coldest hollows of the North Country could briefly reach the teens, making for the chilliest night of the season thus far. Those traveling or spending extended time outdoors should plan accordingly for the late-season cold.
For the remainder of the week, the Northeast remains largely dry as high pressure lingers. However, a low-pressure system offshore in the Atlantic will be retrograding westward on Friday, potentially bringing light rain and drizzle to eastern Massachusetts and parts of coastal New England by Friday evening into Saturday morning. This system is expected to stay well offshore, limiting any rain to coastal areas and keeping most of New England dry.
Marine Interests and Fire Weather Concerns: Gusty northerly winds will maintain Small Craft Advisory conditions on the waters of New England through Wednesday. Mariners should continue to exercise caution in these rough conditions, particularly on exposed waters where waves may reach 6-10 feet. The recent dry spell and gusty winds combined with low relative humidity reinforce fire weather concerns despite slightly lighter winds.
