As October draws to a close and November begins, New England’s weather is set to oscillate between unseasonable warmth and bursts of chilly air. Halloween brings near-record warmth, while cooler, seasonable air returns for the first weekend of November. Expect largely dry conditions to continue, with minimal chances for meaningful precipitation, though Tuesday may bring some rain. The tropics, while calm, still hold potential for development as hurricane season stretches toward its official end in late November.
The Jet Stream and Its Influence
We kick off the forecast period by analyzing the jet stream pattern, which has consistently shaped our weather this fall:
- Warmth for Halloween: A ridge in the jet stream over the eastern United States will allow temperatures to reach near 80 degrees on Halloween, challenging existing records.
- Brief Dip and Cool Weekend: A temporary dip, or “trough,” in the jet stream will bring cooler, near-average temperatures for the upcoming weekend.
- Another Mini Warm Up: Early next week, another ridge builds in, promoting a slight warm-up before another cool dip by mid-week.
The repeated pattern of high pressure in the East and persistent ridges limits prolonged cold and increases temperatures above seasonal averages across the eastern U.S., including New England.
Temperature Outlook
As we navigate these ups and downs in temperature, here’s what you can expect:
- Halloween High: Expect daytime highs around 80 degrees, marking the warmest day in the two-week forecast.
- Weekend Cool Down: Highs will dip into the 50s this weekend, with lows near or below freezing, particularly on Saturday night.
- Moderate Early November: Daytime highs will fluctuate between the low 60s and mid-50s into next week, with cooler overnight lows, though nothing extreme. No other big time warm ups are in sight through the start of the week of November 11th.
Drought Update and Precipitation Chances
Drought Conditions: Moderate drought continues to expand across New England. With recent dry weather and little rainfall on the horizon, drought relief remains unlikely.
- Tuesday (11/5) Elevated Rain Change: Some pockets of rain on Tuesday of next week may bring some relief, though totals will likely remain light.
- Low Precipitation Chances: Outside of Tuesday, a 20-30% chance of rain exists late next week, though any precipitation will likely be minimal due to moisture-starved fronts. There may also be a few showers this week (see Matt’s insights) though nothing substantial is anticipated.
Tropical Development and the End of Hurricane Season
Caribbean and Atlantic: The National Hurricane Center is monitoring clusters of thunderstorms near Cuba and South America for possible development, with a 40% chance of organization in the coming days.
- West African Dust: Dust from the Sahara has suppressed thunderstorm development along the West African coast, reducing storm potential in the central Atlantic.
- Low Favorability: The tropics are relatively quiet, with the most favorable areas for development being south of the Caribbean and near the Lesser Antilles. Tropical activity remains possible through November’s end.
Stay Connected
Stay updated with New England’s evolving weather pattern on the 1DegreeOutside Weather app—available for free on the App Store and Google Play. Thanks for checking in and have a great day!
