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As we step into February, Matt Noyes says all signs point to a snowier-than-normal month across much of the Northeast. The weather pattern that defined January—a clash of cold Arctic air and moisture-laden disturbances—is expected to persist, but start shifting the storm track north in the Eastern U.S., setting the stage for frequent storm chances and potential above-average snowfall in parts of New England and seemingly assuredly in parts of the Northeast. This setup, which harkens to classic winter patterns we haven’t seen much of in recent years, suggests a February filled with multiple snow events even if not a bunch of blockbuster storms.
January saw a surge of cold air dominating much of the country, and that trend isn’t letting up entirely, but likely will let up enough for deeper northward incursions of moisture and warmth necessary for snow. The polar vortex remains strong, keeping Arctic air readily available, while Pacific and Gulf moisture continue to fuel developing storms. As these disturbances ride the temperature gradient between warm and cold air, New England sits right in the battle zone—a prime location for snow production.
Early in the month, we continue to see a pattern of smaller disturbances, bringing bursts of snow rather than prolonged, intense systems. However, as we move deeper into February, long-range models suggest a ridge developing along the Pacific Coast. This would allow colder air to carve out a trough in the eastern U.S., meaning larger, more organized storms may begin to take shape by mid-to-late February.
New England’s average February snowfall is 14.4 inches in Boston—but this year, we could exceed that total. Southern New England and the Mid-Atlantic appear most favored for above-normal snowfall, with potentially significant accumulations from multiple systems. Northern New England may see closer-to-normal snowfall totals, but frequent disturbances will keep the region active and wintry.
Already, multiple storm chances are on the horizon:
This suggests a month filled with frequent snowfall, potentially pushing seasonal totals above normal for many. If you love snow, there’s something to be hopeful for this month!
Stay ahead of the storms with our free 1DegreeOutside Weather app—get live radar, 14-day forecasts, and real-time updates on the go. Download it today in the App Store or Google Play, and keep an eye on our insights videos for detailed storm breakdowns!