Thursday Insights: Warming for Rain Friday…But Keeping Close Watch for Flip to Snow Friday Night

Matt Noyes explains in Thursday Insights that New England’s next storm is a tricky one with temperature swings, rain, and a possible switch to snow Friday night. Here’s what we know so far, though we always suggest watching the video for the full details:

Friday: Rain Takes Over, but Watch the Overnight Cold

A developing storm system will push into New England on Friday, carrying plenty of warm air. A southerly wind flow ahead of the storm will boost temperatures into the 40s for most of central and southern New England, ensuring that precipitation starts as rain.

However, the forecast gets complicated Friday night. As the storm moves east, cold air crashes in behind it. While the timing and intensity of lingering moisture remain uncertain, there is a possibility that rain changes to snow before precipitation ends late Friday night into early Saturday.

Timing Breakdown

• Friday Morning: A few patchy areas of freezing rain possible in western MA, northern CT, and higher terrain valleys. Elsewhere, precipitation begins as rain.
• Friday Afternoon: Widespread rain across central and southern New England. Northern New England still mainly dry.
• Friday Evening: Rain begins transitioning to a mix or snow from north to south.
• Friday Night: A potential flip to snow, but accumulation depends on how quickly cold air moves in before moisture exits.
• Saturday Morning: Precipitation exits, but watch for icy roads as temperatures drop well below freezing.

How Much Snow?

Right now, the best estimate for snowfall accumulation is:

• Coating to 1” for eastern and northern Massachusetts, southern NH.
• 2–4” for parts of Northern and Western New England (see map).
• Higher amounts possible in elevated areas of NH/ME.
• ❄️ Heads-up: Some solutions suggest up to 3” if the cold air moves in quickly – not our forecast, but need to watch it carefully.

The Biggest Uncertainty

The freezing line Friday night is very difficult to pinpoint. If cold air moves in faster, snow accumulations could increase. If rain exits first, we may see little to no snow in some areas.

Sunday Night: Another Snow Chance?

A separate system arrives Sunday evening into Monday morning. Unlike Friday’s storm, this one should be all snow for most of New England. While amounts are still uncertain, early indications suggest a light to moderate event with better odds for accumulation in southern New England.

What to Watch For

✅ How quickly cold air moves in Friday night.
✅ How much moisture remains for a rain-to-snow flip.
✅ Sunday night’s storm—how strong & widespread will it be?

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