Friday Noyes’ Notes/1°Outside Today:
A Tale of Two Seasons
this Weekend

Today is the quiet before the clash. Friday brings a seasonable and relatively pleasant weather day across New England, but big changes are brewing. Danielle has the very latest and gives a shoutout to the second graders at the Batchelder School in North Reading, MA where she visited yesterday!

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National Meteorological Summary

A dynamic and highly varied spring pattern continues across the U.S. today, with multiple areas of impactful weather affecting both coasts and the central states.

A slow-moving upper-level low over northern Mexico is funneling deep Gulf moisture into the Southern Plains and western Gulf Coast, sustaining rounds of heavy rain and thunderstorms from South Texas into southern Louisiana. Some locations in Texas have already received 5–8 inches of rain this week, and another 2–4 inches is possible today. A Slight Risk of excessive rainfall remains in place for the Upper Texas Coast and southwestern Louisiana, and flash flooding is a concern, especially in urban corridors and areas with saturated soils.

Out West, another modest atmospheric river is pushing into the Pacific Northwest and northern California today. This system is expected to produce 2–4 inches of rainfall and heavy snow in the higher elevations of the Cascades and northern Sierra Nevada. Localized flooding may occur along coastal areas and near recent burn scars, but instability is limited, so severe weather is not expected.

Much warmer-than-normal temperatures persist across the Plains and East. Highs today will range 15–25°F above normal across the Great Plains and Mid-Atlantic, where daytime highs in the 60s and 70s are widespread. However, a stark contrast exists across the northern tier. A strong west-to-east-oriented frontal zone is separating this warm air from below-normal temperatures across the Northern Plains, Upper Great Lakes, and northern New England.

North of this boundary, winter is not done yet. A swath of accumulating snow is possible today across northern New York, Vermont, New Hampshire, and Maine. A fresh wave of snow, sleet, and freezing rain will spread from the Upper Midwest to the Northeast through tonight. Winter Weather Advisories are in effect in several states.

Looking ahead, a potent central U.S. system will emerge from the Rockies on Saturday and bring the potential for severe weather from Oklahoma to Missouri by Saturday evening, followed by a widespread thunderstorm threat from the Mississippi Valley to the Mid-Atlantic on Sunday.

Northeast Weather Story

A classic springtime battle between cold and warm air continues across New England and Upstate New York today, with a stalled frontal boundary dividing the region from northwest to southeast. The result? A striking thermal gradient and an unsettled, messy forecast. Let’s focus on tonight into Saturday especially.

The Setup:
A cold front dropped into the region overnight and has stalled across southern New England. Meanwhile, a wave of low pressure traveling along this boundary is ushering in warm, moist air aloft from the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic. The result is a widespread overrunning precipitation event across much of the region, especially central and northern areas.

Snow, Ice, and a Touch of Rain:
Across far northern New York and northern Vermont, New Hampshire, and western Maine, precipitation on Saturday the day will fall as some snow and sleet with 3–7 inches possible in some areas. Further south—particularly from the Adirondacks into the central Green and White Mountains and foothills of Maine—a layer of warm air aloft will create a prolonged period of freezing rain and sleet. Ice accretion of 0.10″ to 0.25″ is likely, particularly in interior valleys and sheltered terrain. Travel will be hazardous, and some pockets of power outages are possible due to icing. Winter Weather Advisories are in effect from the Adirondacks to the Maine foothills.

South of the front, from central Massachusetts and southern Vermont south & westward, Saturday’s weather will be dramatically milder—thanks to southerly flow into the warm sector. Afternoon highs will surge into the 60s and low 70s in those areas. This stark north-south temperature split will be on the order of 30–40°F over just 100 miles—classic backdoor front behavior. However, most of this southern tier will remain dry through the daylight hours, with only patchy light rain possible by evening.