Our Wednesday brings near seasonable temperatures, scattered rain and snow showers, and even the chance of graupel (soft snow pellets) for some. Meteorologist Danielle Noyes explains that a large upper-level low spinning through the region is creating just enough instability for some hit-or-miss showers between early afternoon and evening. While not everyone will see them, those who do could experience a brief downpour, a passing snowflake—or even a burst of snow pellets.
National Weather Summary
An amplified pattern continues across the Lower 48, with an early-season western U.S. heat wave, an intensifying subtropical moisture plume heading for southern Texas, and a progressive trough over the East keeping much of the Northeast cool and occasionally unsettled.
An upper-level ridge continues to dominate the western and central U.S., expanding further inland through today. This ridge is driving a widespread heat wave for late March, with high temperatures soaring into the 90s and even reaching near 100°F across parts of the Desert Southwest and southern Plains. Dozens of monthly and daily high-temperature records are expected to fall. The warm air will spread eastward into the Great Plains and Rockies this afternoon, with parts of the central and northern Rockies seeing temperatures 20–30°F above normal.
The warmth comes with fire weather concerns, particularly over New Mexico and the southern High Plains, where gusty winds and low humidity are producing elevated to critical fire danger conditions.
Meanwhile, a slow-moving upper trough over the eastern Pacific will bring the next wave of rain and high-elevation snow to the Pacific Northwest and northern California through later today. Snow levels will be high initially due to the antecedent warmth, but will begin to fall as the system progresses inland.
In the eastern U.S., a recent storm system is exiting New England, with brisk northwest flow and a reinforcing trough ushering in cooler, near- to below-normal temperatures for the Great Lakes, Ohio Valley, and Northeast. Scattered rain and snow showers continue today, particularly across the Great Lakes and interior Northeast, where lake effect and upslope enhancement will contribute to light accumulations.
Elsewhere, attention turns to the southern tier of the country by late Wednesday into Thursday. As a subtropical jet lifts across northern Mexico and southern Texas, abundant Gulf moisture will begin streaming northward. Thunderstorms are expected to increase in coverage and intensity late Wednesday into early Thursday across south-central Texas, with potential for locally heavy rainfall and training storms. A Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall has been issued for Thursday across this region, with rainfall totals of 3–6 inches possible.
Looking further ahead, this southern stream system will merge with northern energy later in the week, potentially leading to a more expansive storm system across the central and eastern U.S. by the weekend. Meanwhile, the West will stay active with another Pacific system arriving late in the week.
Northeast Weather Story
A big upper level low is the primary weather feature today, which will begin to shift eastward. Another shortwave passes across the region in the morning and early afternoon, reintroducing scattered snow showers and rain/snow mix. Snow showers will be most common across the higher terrain of Vermont, the Adirondacks, Berkshires, and possibly the Catskills. Though accumulations will generally be light, some spots above 1500 feet could pick up a coating to an inch.
Winds remain breezy from the northwest, especially in the afternoon, with gusts of 20–25 mph common across inland valleys and elevated terrain.
With the chilly air mass in place and increasing clouds, nighttime lows tonight will fall into the 20s to low 30s, with teens possible in the higher elevations.
Marine interests can expect gradually subsiding seas, though gusty west-northwest winds may remain locally near advisory criteria, especially across the outer waters east of Cape Cod. Aviation operations should anticipate prevailing VFR conditions, though brief MVFR may occur with heavier snow showers inland.
