As far as Matt and Danielle Noyes can see, November isn’t set to bring a big pattern change to New England…or most of the Eastern third of the United States…though the nation’s midsection has a chance to improve their ongoing severe and extreme drought. Full details in the video with Matt.
Warm Start with Limited Snow
As November begins, New England is expected to stay warmer than average through at least mid-month. Despite typical chances for first flakes across parts of Northern New England, warmer temperatures may limit early snowfall accumulation, particularly south of northern mountainous regions. Even with occasional cool-downs, these brief periods of chill will likely yield only scattered light snow, primarily in Northern New England.
Jet Stream Patterns Favor Warmth
This month’s jet stream setup favors warm ridging across the Eastern U.S. and dips, or “troughs,” over the West. With this pattern, New England should see mostly mild temperatures, while the West experiences cooler and stormier weather. The jet stream’s central U.S. alignment is likely to keep storm activity away from New England, leading to dry conditions and minimal moisture flow into the Northeast.
Drought Conditions and Elevated Fire Risk
Drought conditions remain a concern in New England. With October rainfall reaching only about 20% of normal levels across Central and Southern New England, November’s below-average precipitation outlook intensifies fire risks. A typical November would bring approximately 3.66 inches of rain to Boston, yet the current pattern suggests lower totals, perhaps significantly so. Combined with repeated periods of low humidity, this setup will heighten the need for caution with outdoor fire safety.
14-Day Outlook: Alternating Mild and Cool Spells
The first half of the month will see mild temperatures with a few brief shots of cooler air. The jet stream pattern may create some clouds and light precipitation as warmer air occasionally interacts with cooler northern air, leading to occasional shots of showers, which – coming off more intense cold spells – could mean some times of mostly light snow in the mountains, but again, that’s almost always as cold air retreats for incoming warm spells. For a detailed look at this evolving pattern, follow our weekly updates each Monday with “Pattern Predictions.”
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