Tuesday Insights: Quick Cold Fronts Now…But Deeper Cold Is Showing Its Hand in Siberia

For now, New England and most of the northern tier of the United States have seen energetic but moisture starved cold fronts marching through with quick shots of chill, often replaced by unseasonable warmth.  That pattern will continue not only through this weekend – when renewed, quick shots of chill come calling – but also into next week, when mild air likely returns leading into Halloween.  Matt Noyes says the players are on the map for a colder pattern eventually, though, and takes our Insights into a technical meteorological zone of watching the evolution of the jet stream pattern from Siberia to Alaska in the coming week and how, eventually, that should spell more intense and longer-lasting chill in the Northeast.

Breezy and Mild, But Changes Are Coming

  • Mild Start: Today remains relatively quiet with light onshore winds. However, winds will start picking up tomorrow (Wednesday) with gusts reaching 20+ mph. A southerly breeze will keep temperatures warm, with highs expected to reach the mid-70s across New England. While no new record highs are forecast for most, it’s still impressive warmth for late October.
  • Brush Fire Danger: Dry air combined with gusty winds raises the brush fire danger in the region. Though it’s not extreme, parts of New England may see an increase to moderate to high fire risk by Wednesday.
  • Cold Front Arriving Wednesday Night: A cold front comes through Wednesday night, bringing a chance of scattered showers. While rain totals won’t be significant, this front will usher in much cooler air for Thursday.

End of the Week: A Wake-Up Call for Autumn

  • Thursday Chill: After the front passes, we’ll feel the true return of fall. Thursday’s highs will be much lower, with temperatures falling into the 50s in southern New England and even 40s further north. Gusts of 30-35 mph will make it feel brisk.
  • Overnight Lows: Thursday night brings a return to overnight lows in the 30s, signaling the arrival of cooler autumn air.
  • Friday to Saturday: The chill eases slightly by Friday with highs rebounding to around 60 degrees, but a potential Saturday morning shower could accompany another cold front moving through the region. By Sunday, cooler air returns once again, setting us up for a chilly start to next week.

Waves and Winds: Oscar’s Leftover Effects

  • Tropical System Oscar: What’s left of Oscar continues to stir up waves and swell that will affect coastal New England. Thursday’s northwest winds will create offshore winds combining with the swell, producing decent surf along the Cape Cod National Seashore and islands.

Halloween Outlook: Mild Before the Chill

  • Warm for Halloween: Before the bigger cold arrives, Halloween looks like it may be quite mild. As Matt mentioned in yesterday’s Pattern Predictions, the warmth ahead of the colder weather pattern means we could see temperatures in the mid-70s on Halloween—an unseasonably warm treat!

Looking Ahead: November Cold and Jet Stream Changes

  • Siberian Cold Air Moving: The most important change on the horizon is the migration of cold air originating in Siberia and headed east. While this air mass is still making its way across Alaska, as the cold air moves, the jet stream will carve out a deep trough over Alaska. This pattern is expected to create a ridge over the Western U.S. and a trough over the Eastern U.S., leading to a more stable cold setup for our region by early November.

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