Monday Insights: Record Warmth Ahead, New Tropical Storm Likely

From New England’s record warmth incoming to severe thunderstorms in the Central United States to developing Tropical Storm Raphael, Matt Noyes covers it all in our “Insights” video on this Monday – the deeper dive into the meteorology of the next several days!

Monday through Tuesday: Winds of Change Begin

Today started with calm conditions as New England prepares for increasing winds of change. Expect:

• Light winds keeping the fire spread risk lower for today and tonight.
• Potential showers in Northern New England, especially in Maine’s far north, where a brief period of wet snow may even accumulate in spots this evening. Map in the video.

Tuesday ushers in a southwest breeze, gusting up to 20 mph by afternoon, increasing the potential for fire spread. Meanwhile, temperatures continue their climb as mild air settles in.

Wednesday: Record-Breaking Warmth

Wednesday brings the peak of this warm spell, with temperatures potentially breaking records in many areas:

• Highs reaching mid-70s in central and southern New England with a southwest breeze persisting at 25 mph.
• Cold front arriving late Wednesday, signaling a shift as cooler air begins filtering in from the northwest overnight into Thursday.

Tropical System Development in the Gulf of Mexico

There’s a new tropical system on the horizon, currently labeled Potential Tropical Cyclone #18 by the National Hurricane Center, which should become Tropical Storm Rafael. Expected developments include:

• Movement toward the western tip of Cuba midweek, likely as a Category 1 hurricane.
• Entering the Gulf of Mexico, though potentially weakening due to wind shear.

Although direct impacts are unlikely in New England, this system introduces much-needed moisture that may help support a shower pattern here by next week.  More on that coming today in our “Pattern Predictions” video at 1DegreeOutside.com and atop our Noyes’ 1DegreeOutside Weather app homescreen.

Extended Forecast: Cooler Days with Seasonal Averages

After Wednesday’s warmth:

• Thursday and Friday see a decline in temperatures, with highs in the 50s and 60s. Cooler air, but still near to above average.
• A potential fragmented, indirect and weak influx of moisture could at least enhance rain chances next week if the pattern shifts, so stay tuned for updates and see our Pattern Predictions video coming later today for more on that.

For detailed hourly and 14-day forecasts, download the Noyes’ 1DegreeOutside Weather app available on the App Store and Google Play.