Matt Noyes says the record warmth today (Wednesday) retreats Thursday and Friday – but temperatures will remain warmer-than-normal until another cold front later Friday delivers some scattered rain and snow showers to the North Country and knocks temperatures closer to seasonal norms by Saturday. The next chance of more widespread showers appears to be Sunday night into Monday, and though Matt and Danielle are carefully watching to ensure the timing doesn’t speed up to impact our Sunday, right now Matt says the most likely scenario daytime Sunday is increasing clouds. Matt also takes us well into next week, when the chance for showers increases at two points.
REMINDER! With the brush fire danger continuing very high and smoke blowing through many areas, we continue our continuous video stream of our latest videos plus real-time updating maps of air quality, humidity, wind and fire spread conditions on our Livestream page linked here, which is also found linked at the bottom of Noyes’ 1DegreeOutside Weather app homescreen, as well as on our YouTube Channel here, or Twitch Channel here.
- Today (Wednesday):
Temperatures across New England will soar well above average, with most locations in southern New England expected to reach the upper 70s, and areas in the Connecticut River Valley and parts of interior Massachusetts and Rhode Island approaching 80 degrees. These temperatures could tie or break previous records for November 6. Urban areas such as Boston and Hartford are among the most likely to set new high marks. Farther north, into Vermont, New Hampshire, and Maine, highs will still reach the upper 60s to low 70s, with the warmest conditions occurring in downsloping areas like the Champlain Valley, though if Portland, ME, can reach 75 degrees, that would tie your all-time November warm record!Winds will also be a notable factor today, with sustained southwest winds between 15-20 mph and gusts reaching up to 30 mph, especially over higher terrain and coastal areas. Coupled with relative humidity values dropping into the 40-50% range, fire danger will be elevated across Connecticut, Massachusetts, and Rhode Island, where fuels are already dry from a prolonged lack of significant rain.
- Tonight:
As the cold front pushes through the region during the late evening hours, a band of scattered, light showers will accompany it, primarily affecting areas north and west of the Boston metro area. Showers are expected to be brief and light, with rainfall amounts generally staying under 0.10 inches – perhaps closer to a trace – and primarily limited to New York’s Southern Tier and parts of western Massachusetts and Vermont into the Northern Mountains. Behind the front, cooler and drier air will filter in from the northwest, leading to overnight lows in the 40s for most of New England, though southern coastal areas may retain a bit of warmth with lows in the low 50s.
- Thursday through Friday:
Cooler air will settle over the Northeast following the front, with highs dropping to the 50s and low 60s, a return toward seasonal norms, though still above normal. Winds will also turn gusty from the northwest on Friday, especially in the higher elevations and Northern New England where some scattered showers are possible in the afternoon, mixed with snowflakes on mountaintops. Another reinforcing shot of cold air will arrive Friday night, bringing temperatures in the 40s in the North Country Saturday, 50s south, and nighttime lows dipping into the 30s for inland areas and 20s in higher elevations by Saturday morning and widespread subfreezing temperatures Saturday night.
- Late Weekend into Early Next Week:
A frontal system moving through the Great Lakes will bring the next chance for showers to New England, likely beginning Sunday evening or night into Monday. While the exact rainfall amounts and track remain uncertain, this storm could provide the region with much-needed precipitation, though it doesn’t look like heavy rain at this point. Additionally, moisture from Tropical Storm Rafael—if the storm tracks northward as we expect — should eventually increase rainfall potential for the Northeast early next week.
