New Englanders will enjoy a quiet, seasonable stretch to kick off the week, but changes are on the way as we shift gears into a stormier pattern. Thursday’s coastal system offers much-needed rain for drought relief and potential snow in higher elevations, but the setup is a complex one, requiring careful analysis of atmospheric dynamics, which Matt offers here, in our “Insights” deep-dive video!
The next two days remain quiet and dry with our early Monday AM showers gone, with highs in the 50s across much of New England, dipping into the 40s in northern areas. Breezy northwest winds Tuesday will ease by Wednesday, setting the stage for Thursday’s storm to take shape.
A developing low-pressure system will redevelop from the Upper Great Lakes to Southern New England Thursday through Saturday, drawing in moisture from the south and, eventually, cold from the north and west. Rain will be the primary story for most of the region, with totals ranging from 0.5 to 1 inch—enough to help with ongoing drought conditions and lower brush fire danger. However, colder air struggling to arrive on time limits snowfall initially. While snowflakes may mix in across the higher elevations of Vermont, New Hampshire, and Maine late Thursday, significant accumulations are unlikely until Friday night into Saturday, when colder northwest winds usher in upslope snow.
At first glance, the surface map appears to set up perfectly for a significant snow event in the mountains, with a developing low tracking over Southern New England — sometimes an ideal storm path for Northern New England snow. However, a deeper dive into mid-level atmospheric dynamics tells a different story. The key lies in the mid-level storm center, forecast to remain west of New England through Friday. This keeps winds out of the south, limiting the ability to draw in the cold air necessary for widespread snow. It’s not until Friday evening into Saturday, as the system begins to exit, that winds shift to the northwest, creating conditions favorable for upslope snow in the mountains. This delayed arrival of colder air means snow totals from Thursday into Friday will likely underperform compared to the hope some have.
Thursday’s storm offers a glimpse of what may lie ahead this winter. In recent weeks, we’ve seen an active storm track develop across the central U.S., bringing relief to areas that were in extreme drought just a few months ago. Based on decades of experience forecasting New England weather, Matt has found that these patterns often migrate eastward—and Thursday’s system may be the first step in a broader trend toward a stormier pattern for New England. As the subtropical jet stream interacts with northern energy, the potential for repetitive storms increases. If this pattern continues, it could spell significant relief for New England’s drought while delivering ample opportunities for snow lovers across the region.
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