National Weather Summary
A powerful storm system will be the dominant weather feature across the central U.S. to start the week, bringing a range of significant hazards. The storm, originating from the Intermountain West, will intensify as it moves into the central High Plains Monday night and rapidly strengthens while tracking into the Midwest on Tuesday. This system will be responsible for heavy snow, strong winds, severe weather, and the risk of flash flooding across large portions of the country.
Major Winter Storm in the Central U.S.
- Heavy Snow & Blizzard Conditions:
- The central Rockies will see significant snowfall through Monday, with higher elevations picking up 1 to 2 feet of snow.
- As the storm strengthens, a swath of 4 to 8 inches of snow—potentially over a foot in some locations—will impact the central High Plains to the upper Midwest by Tuesday.
- Strong winds combined with this snow will create blizzard conditions, particularly in Nebraska, South Dakota, Minnesota, and Wisconsin.
Severe Weather & Flooding Threats in the South
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Severe Thunderstorms:
- A developing severe weather threat will unfold across Texas and Oklahoma late Monday night, with strong to severe thunderstorms bringing the risk of large hail, damaging winds, and isolated tornadoes.
- A much larger and more intense severe weather outbreak is expected on Tuesday across the Lower Mississippi Valley and Mid-South, where strong tornadoes, damaging winds, and large hail are likely.
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Heavy Rainfall & Flash Flooding:
- A widespread area from the Midwest to the Lower Mississippi Valley will experience heavy rainfall, with localized flash flooding possible.
- The Weather Prediction Center has issued a Slight Risk (Level 2/4) of excessive rainfall across parts of Iowa, Missouri, and the Tennessee Valley.
Fire Danger in the Southern High Plains
- Critical to Extreme Fire Weather Conditions:
- Strong winds and low humidity levels will bring an elevated fire danger across eastern New Mexico, western Texas, western Oklahoma, and southwest Kansas starting Monday.
- These conditions will persist into midweek as the storm system advances eastward.
Temperatures & Airmass Changes
- The Midwest will experience above-normal temperatures ahead of the storm on Monday, before colder air arrives midweek.
- The Eastern U.S. will see warming temperatures into Tuesday and Wednesday.
- Meanwhile, colder air already in place across the western U.S. will expand eastward, bringing below-normal temperatures to the Plains by midweek.
Northeast Weather Story
A dry and cold start to the workweek is expected across the Northeast as high pressure dominates the region. However, the calm weather will not last long, as a major storm system currently organizing in the central U.S. will push toward the region by midweek, bringing widespread rain, gusty winds, and the potential for flooding.
Monday: Cold & Dry
- High pressure will provide mostly sunny skies and dry conditions across the region.
- Temperatures will remain below normal, with highs ranging from the upper teens and low 20s in northern New England to the mid-30s across southern New England and the Mid-Atlantic.
- Light northwest winds will keep wind chills in the single digits and teens in the morning.
Tuesday: Moderating Temperatures
- A gradual warming trend begins as high pressure moves offshore, shifting winds to the southwest.
- Highs will climb into the upper 30s to mid-40s across much of the region, with 50s possible in southern New England and the Mid-Atlantic.
- Increasing clouds are expected late in the day as moisture begins to spread northward.
Midweek Storm (Wednesday-Thursday): Heavy Rain & Strong Winds
By Wednesday, a powerful storm system will move toward the Northeast, bringing widespread rain, strong winds, and the risk of minor flooding.
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Rain & Potential Flooding:
- A warm front will lift through the region Wednesday morning, leading to a period of moderate to heavy rain across New England and New York.
- Rainfall totals of 0.75 to 1.5 inches are expected, with locally higher amounts possible in the higher elevations and upslope regions.
- In areas where snow remains on the ground, rapid melting could contribute to river rises and potential ice jam flooding.
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Strong Winds:
- A potent low-level jet (LLJ) of 70-80 mph will bring the potential for strong southerly wind gusts of 40-50 mph, particularly across coastal areas and higher terrain.
- The strongest winds are expected late Wednesday into early Thursday, potentially leading to power outages and hazardous travel conditions.
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Temperature Surge Before Cold Front:
- Temperatures will spike into the 50s and possibly near 60°F across southern New England and the Mid-Atlantic on Wednesday ahead of the cold front.
- Northern New England will remain cooler but will still see 40s and low 50s.
Thursday-Friday: Colder & Windy
- As the storm exits, gusty northwest winds will bring cooler air back into the region, with temperatures returning to seasonable levels by late week.
- Some snow showers are possible Thursday night into Friday, especially in the higher elevations of the Adirondacks, Green Mountains, and White Mountains.
- Gusty winds will continue Thursday and Friday, with 40+ mph gusts possible, leading to hazardous conditions for high-profile vehicles and marine interests.
Weekend Outlook:
- A weak clipper system could bring scattered rain or snow showers on Saturday, but no major storm is expected.
- Temperatures should remain near normal for early March.