May’s off to a soggy start, and the pattern behind it explains a lot. In this week’s Pattern Predictions, Danielle Noyes walks us through the large-scale setup controlling New England’s weather — and what could be ahead for Mother’s Day and beyond.
Right now, we’re under the influence of a stalled upper-level low, spinning over the Ohio Valley and sending waves of rain and embedded thunder into New England. This low will shift over us in the coming days, and just when we think we’re out of the woods, another disturbance dives in from Eastern Canada to renew the unsettled weather Friday into Saturday.
Here’s the upside: the blocking pattern finally breaks down, and by Sunday (Mother’s Day), we could begin a transition. The one catch? There’s still some lingering energy nearby that may lead to a few showers, especially the farther north you go. So while Sunday looks like the better weekend day right now, it’s not a guaranteed dry one — we’ll keep you updated.
What happens after that?
A new upper-level trough dives into the Pacific Northwest, promoting a ridge across the eastern two-thirds of the U.S.
This will usher in warmer-than-normal air — we may even flirt with some 80s in New England by the middle to end of next week
A fast west-to-east flow means some quick-hitting disturbances could also return — meaning showers or even thunderstorms with the building warmth aren’t off the table late next week
For central and southern New England, we’re likely in the clear. But in northern Vermont, New Hampshire, and especially northern Maine, don’t let your guard down just yet. A few chilly nights in the 30s remain possible — especially Thursday night into Friday and again Saturday night into Sunday.
The bulk of the rain comes this week, with 2–4 inches likely across much of the region and locally higher amounts across CT, RI, and the lower Connecticut River Valley, with more added on Friday & Saturday )exact amounts TBD). Precipitation chances drop briefly next week, but creep back up by the 18th–19th with another potential disturbance trying to dig in.
As always, check the app each day — the 14-day, hourly, and radar tools will adjust as the pattern evolves!
