Tuesday Noyes’ Notes/1°Outside Today: Brief Shower Threat, Seasonable Air

We’re in that tricky seasonal stretch between winter and spring—when the morning may start icy, the afternoon turns mild, and snow showers still manage to sneak their way into the forecast.

National Weather Summary

A large-scale pattern shift is underway across the continental United States this week, as a strong upper ridge builds over the central U.S. and an upper-level trough carves itself into the East. This juxtaposition will drive markedly different weather regimes across the country over the coming days.

The most prominent story is the development of an early spring heat wave across much of the western and central U.S. A strong ridge centered over the Intermountain West is already yielding daytime highs in the 70s and 80s across the Plains and West Coast, with 90s—and even some 100°F readings—expected in the Desert Southwest. These temperatures are running 20 to 30 degrees above late March norms, and widespread daily and monthly records are likely, particularly Tuesday and Wednesday. Heat anomalies are forecast to persist through midweek in the West and expand into the central U.S. before a gradual eastward progression of the upper pattern.

Meanwhile, a series of disturbances diving into the East within a deepening trough aloft are bringing a return to more seasonable or even below-normal conditions across the Great Lakes, Northeast, and parts of the Appalachians. A weak low departing the East Coast will continue to bring some light snowfall to portions of Maine early Tuesday, while the broader upper trough maintains chances for rain and snow showers across the Great Lakes and interior Northeast. Lake effect snow will remain possible downwind of the Great Lakes through midweek under cold cyclonic flow.

Further west, precipitation remains relatively limited. Lingering showers and high-elevation snow will diminish across the Pacific Northwest Tuesday as a recent atmospheric river event exits the region. However, another potent Pacific system will begin to approach late Wednesday into Thursday, ushering in the return of rain and mountain snow to the coastal Northwest. This system will also begin to dislodge the upper ridge across the West by late in the week.

Across the southern tier, quiet weather dominates Tuesday. One exception will be late-day showers and thunderstorms developing along a frontal boundary across parts of north Texas and southern Oklahoma, with increasing moisture and instability contributing to the threat of isolated thunderstorms. This activity will expand southeastward later in the week, possibly bringing heavy rainfall to portions of Texas and the Gulf Coast by Thursday and Friday.

In summary, the week opens with a sharp west-to-east contrast in temperatures and sensible weather, with record heat and quiet conditions across the West and Central U.S., and cooler, unsettled weather in the East. This pattern sets the stage for increasing precipitation across the central U.S. later in the week, as troughing progresses and interacts with returning Gulf moisture.

Northeast Weather Story 

After a dreary and chilly Monday with widespread rain and high-elevation snow, conditions across the Northeast will trend somewhat drier Tuesday—but the region remains embedded in a broad upper-level trough, keeping skies unsettled and temperatures seasonably cool. While some drier air will filter into the area behind a departing coastal low, cold air aloft and lingering upper-level energy will keep clouds and isolated showers in the forecast, especially for New York and northern New England.

The best chance for additional precipitation early Tuesday morning will be across northern and eastern Maine, where wraparound snow continues from a low now pulling away into the Canadian Maritimes. Accumulations here will be light but may contribute to a wintry start to the day for far northern areas. Elsewhere, scattered lake-enhanced rain and snow showers will continue across central and northern New York, especially the western Adirondacks, Tug Hill Plateau, and western slopes of the Green Mountains. In these areas, northwest flow combined with marginal instability aloft may generate brief, locally heavier bursts of precipitation. Accumulations will be light and mainly confined to higher elevations.

Skies may partially clear in some areas Tuesday afternoon, particularly across southern New England and the lower Hudson Valley, where drier low-level air and weak surface ridging begin to build in. Any sunshine will help boost afternoon highs into the upper 40s and low 50s across the valleys, with cooler readings (upper 30s to mid 40s) expected in the higher elevations. Winds will be breezy from the west and northwest, with gusts up to 25 mph—enough to enhance the chill factor.

By Tuesday night, a weak disturbance approaching from the Great Lakes may trigger another round of scattered snow showers across northern and western parts of the region. Meanwhile, low pressure developing off the Mid-Atlantic coast will stay well to the south and east, with only a minimal risk of precipitation reaching southern New England—mostly confined to the waters and perhaps the outer Cape and Islands.

Looking ahead, the Northeast remains under the influence of the upper trough midweek, with additional chances for light snow or rain showers and another push of cold air expected Wednesday into Wednesday night. While snow accumulations will remain minor, the combination of chilly temperatures, gusty winds, and scattered precipitation will give much of the region a persistent wintry feel well into the middle of the week.

For aviation, marine, and public safety interests, this means increased caution is advised, especially in areas where gusty winds and lingering showers may briefly reduce visibility or create slick travel conditions in the higher elevations. Fire weather concerns remain minimal due to the combination of recent rainfall and higher humidity.

The next chance for more organized precipitation arrives late in the week as a larger-scale storm system develops over the central U.S. and approaches the region by the weekend. But until then, it’s a seasonably cool and breezy stretch across New England and Upstate New York with just enough instability aloft to keep scattered rain and snow showers in the mix.

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