You’ll want to watch Matt Noyes’ full video of our monthly forecast for all the details, but here’s the gist:
Jet Stream Dominance in the First Half of September
The jet stream, that fast-moving river of air high in the sky, will play a significant role in our weather throughout the first half of the month. For the past few weeks, we’ve seen a persistent pattern of jet stream troughs digging across the Northeast. This pattern is expected to continue, bringing cooler than normal temperatures and preventing any long stretches of warm weather. The frequent arrival of these troughs will also bring instability, leading to scattered showers and storms. However, without a connection to tropical moisture, these precipitation events are likely to be short-lived, keeping overall rainfall below normal levels.
A Potential Shift in the Second Half of the Month
As we move toward the middle and end of September, there are signs of a potential shift in the jet stream pattern. This change could bring a more southerly flow, opening the door to warmer temperatures and possibly even some tropical moisture. If this shift occurs, it could mean a warmer and wetter end to the month, with the possibility of temperatures flipping above normal. This also raises the chances of seeing tropical influences, whether from a storm or just enhanced moisture, which could impact our precipitation totals. While the likelihood isn’t strong enough for us to alter the forecast appreciably, it’s responsible for us to let you know!
Temperature and Precipitation Expectations
Overall, September is likely to see the first half leaning cooler than normal and the second half potentially warmer than normal. The average high for the month in New England is around 73°F, with lows averaging 58°F. Precipitation is the wildcard, largely depending on whether we see any tropical influence. Without it, rainfall should end up below the monthly average of 3.5 inches. However, with New England’s hurricane season peaking in September, any tropical system could quickly change that outlook.
Keep an Eye on the Tropics
With hurricane season at its peak, it’s essential to stay informed about any potential tropical developments. The period from late August through September 22nd is historically the most active for significant storms in New England, including the infamous Great Hurricane of 1938. This makes the next few weeks crucial for monitoring the tropics, as any significant storm could drastically alter our weather patterns.
Stay Updated with Our App
For the most accurate and up-to-date weather information, including the 14-day forecast, be sure to download the Noyes’ 1DegreeOutside Weather app. Available on both the App Store and Google Play, the app provides hourly updates, interactive radar, and more to keep you prepared for whatever September may bring.
