The first weekday of month means our monthly forecast we call “On the Horizon!” This month, Matt says the pattern by the end of the third week of March really should “break the back” of winter, though some powerful storms will traverse the nation along the way…and Matt says even after the pattern change there’s still enough cold air in the Northern Hemisphere that a future strong storm into April would be a possibility. Take a dive into the next four weeks with Matt in the video!
As we dive into March, we’re looking at a classic transition month, where cold air battles warming temperatures and storm activity remains high—at least in the first half of the month. The pattern favors strong storms, but for much of New England, we may find ourselves on the warm side of these systems. Nonetheless, while that usually means rain for Southern New England, it’s still possible for Northern New England to squeeze out meaningful snow in advance of some of these systems, if enough cold air exists prior to the systems to hold on before warmth takes over.
The first two weeks of March will continue the stormy pattern we’ve seen this winter, with a clash of cold air to the north and warm, moist air to the south. This setup means:
While snow isn’t out of the question – and in fact can be expected in parts of Northern New England – most major storms appear likely to bring rain to southern New England, with snow focused in the interior and mountains.
By the final third of the month, the pattern shifts toward milder conditions. The polar vortex becomes more fragmented, and most true winter weather shifts toward Alaska & Siberia.
What this means for New England:
🌡️ Temperatures: Near normal, but that means a lot of up-and-down swings
🌧️ Precipitation: Likely above normal in the first half, but perhaps closer to normal late month
❄️ Snowfall: Boston’s normal March snow is 9 inches, but this month that may be hard to do for much of Southern New England…though chances are better in Northern New England to make a run closer to normal snowfall…though the abundance of warm air in these events makes that short of guaranteed.
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