Pattern Predictions Oct. 21-Nov. 4, 2024: Alternating Chill and Warmth Continues

Matt and Danielle hope to give unparalleled understanding of why the weather does what it does in the “medium range” forecast period – days 5 through 14.  Some folks will always question if weather can truly be predicted to 14 days…Pattern Predictions is certainly proof-positive that we can, as long as we do it with humility and understanding of how things will evolve.  So, whether you’re looking for a return of warmth, deeper cold or hope of a longer-lasting colder pattern, Matt Noyes has it all and examines New England, the Western U.S., and even Alaska to Siberia in this week’s “Pattern Predictions!!!”

Early Week: Warm and Dry Weather

  • Warm temperatures continue: The jet stream remains positioned far to our north, allowing for record-challenging warmth to start the week. Temperatures are expected to reach near 80 degrees in some parts of New England, a significant departure from typical late-October weather.
  • High pressure dominance: We’re still under the influence of a strong high-pressure system at both the surface and upper atmosphere. This setup has kept conditions warm and dry, contributing to the stretch of unseasonably mild weather.

Mid-Week Shift: Cooler Air on the Way

  • Jet stream dip: By midweek, the jet stream will begin to shift, allowing a cold front to approach New England from the northwest. This front will bring cooler air as it moves through, but the change won’t be drastic at first.
  • Wednesday night cold front: The cold front arrives Wednesday night into Thursday morning. While it will bring a quick shower, don’t expect much rain as it passes through. The bigger story will be the drop in temperatures, signaling the end of the warmth.

Late Week: Fall Chill Returns

  • Cooler by Thursday: After the cold front passes, temperatures will fall significantly. By Thursday and Friday, highs will only reach the 50s in many parts of New England, with even cooler conditions in the northern regions.
  • Chilly mornings: Expect frost to return to northern and western New England on Thursday night, as the air grows colder behind the front. This will lead to crisp fall days heading into the weekend.

Next Week: Possible Halloween Warmth

  • Warming trend resumes: After the brief cool-down, warmer air could make a return just in time for Halloween. By midweek, the jet stream looks poised to push a new ridge of high pressure into the region, bringing back mild conditions for early November. We’re anticipating mid-70s around October 30th and possibly Halloween as well.
  • Long-term outlook: We’re watching for another jet stream dip by the end of the first week of November. The first signal this is likely to happen is the cold that’s been building over Siberia, in Russia, sending a chunk of meaningful chill toward Alaska by early November.  Often, this eventually results in a deeper jet stream trough with more meaningful cold carving into the Eastern United States for a time, likely to bring deeper chill to New England somewhere around the 7th to 12th of November, if the forecast jet stream holds.

Tropics: Watching Central America & the Central Atlantic

  • Tropical Development: While Tropical Storm Oscar is not expected to impact New England directly, it could generate some ocean waves along the coast. Otherwise, this coming weekend features conditions favorable for development near the Central American coast, and by next week, the Central Atlantic may become more favorable for development, though by that time anything that develops there would be likely to remain well out to sea.

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