Pattern Predictions: Winter Pattern in New England Setting Up Just In Time for December

Thanksgiving week in New England is packed with changing weather, and the next 14 days promise plenty of action. From a rain/snow storm on Thanksgiving to colder air setting the stage for early December snow chances, the pattern ahead is evolving quickly. Let’s explore the meteorological details shaping our forecast with Matt Noyes, in our weekly Pattern Predictions video!

Thanksgiving Week: A Wet Holiday for Most

The fast-flowing jet stream continues to guide storm systems across the U.S., infusing the atmosphere with energy and moisture. For New England, this means active weather for Thanksgiving week.

The Thanksgiving Day storm is likely to track directly over New England, thanks to strong jet stream winds and areas of intensified flow called jet streaks. Positioned in the ideal spot for storm development, these streaks enhance the system’s ability to strengthen as it approaches. Unfortunately for snow lovers in southern New England, this setup favors a surge of warmer air, making rain the predominant precipitation type for most of the region.

• Southern New England: Expect rain starting mid-morning to midday Thanksgiving Day, continuing into the evening.  Perhaps some brief snow in the hills and Western mountains.
• Northern New England: A better chance of at least a period of accumulating snow, with the best chance for significant snow in the mountains, where elevations may see several inches of wet snow. This could provide a welcome boost for ski areas, but uncertainty remains on just how far north and how fast warmth will track.

Friday & the Weekend: Cold Air Takes Hold

By Friday, the storm departs, leaving behind colder, drier air. This cold is driven by a trough—a pronounced dip in the jet stream—allowing chilly Canadian air to filter into the region. While temperatures will drop below normal, the dry air means limited precipitation for most areas through the weekend.

Wind gusts will persist Friday, making the air feel even colder. Highs will struggle to climb out of the 40s for much of southern New England, with northern areas stuck in the 30s.

Looking Ahead: Early December Snow Chances

As the jet stream adjusts again in the first week of December, the door opens for more frequent disturbances to interact with lingering cold air.

• Dec. 4-10: A series of disturbances collectively bring an increased chance of accumulating snow to parts of New England, particularly northern and higher-elevation areas.
• The Big Question After the 14-day period (second half of December): Does the cold pattern persist through the end of the month, or does the jet stream lift north, allowing warmth to return? This remains uncertain, and the answer will shape the second half of December.  Matt expects to have a better handle on this for our monthly forecast, out on the first weekday of the new month.

Why the Storm Track Matters

The current jet stream setup steers storms into New England from the west and southwest. This path draws in milder air ahead of systems, limiting snowfall in southern areas. For significant snow to reach lower elevations, a storm would need to track farther south, allowing cold air to lock in across the region.

Stay Informed

This dynamic pattern calls for close monitoring. With the potential for rain, snow, and shifting temperatures, having access to up-to-date forecasts is key. Download our free Noyes’ 1DegreeOutside Weather App for live radar, personalized forecasts, and daily updates.