Pattern Predictions: Cross-Polar Flow, the Polar Vortex All Reasons for Winter Lovers to Take Notice

We assume that if you come looking for Pattern Predictions, you probably love the science of meteorology.  There’s nothing Matt loves to do more when it comes to weather than to pull back the curtain and lay it all on the table: exactly what he and Danielle are watching in the the next two weeks, and why he’d love for you to watch, too.  Come along on this fascinating ride to the North Pole and beyond in search of clues to New England weather through Christmas to the New Year!

Short-Term: Wintry Mix and Mild Spells

This week ends behind the rain and wind with some upslope snow in the mountains of Vermont and New Hampshire as colder air returns through Thursday and Friday.

• Weekend Disturbance: A system Sunday into Monday should bring snow to northern New England with a mix or rain farther south.
• Midweek Warm-Up: Another disturbance midweek next week will likely bring mild air and rain showers to much of New England.

The Cross-Polar Flow Wild Card

By this weekend, the jet stream will begin to shift in a way that grabs attention. A ridge building near Siberia could pump Arctic air across the North Pole, creating a cross-polar flow. Here’s why this matters:

1. Untapped Arctic Air: Cross-polar flow often delivers the coldest air of the season to New England.
2. Modeling Challenges: Forecast models frequently under-represent the strength of this type of cold air.

The key question is whether this pattern will persist long enough to tap into this Arctic reservoir and send it southward.

Late-December Potential: Active and Cold

As the polar vortex strengthens near the North Pole, the upper-level winds are setting up to steer Arctic air southward. If cross-polar flow holds steady, this opens the door for multiple storms to interact with the colder air over New England between December 20th and the New Year.  It’s not a lock, but it raises the flag to not discount a potential wintry end to the month.

• Temperature Trends: After a mid-month warm-up, temperatures are likely to trend downward sharply toward late December.
• Precipitation Outlook: A more active jet stream increases the chance of storms capable of delivering snow, particularly in northern and central New England.

Cautious Optimism for Winter Enthusiasts

While nothing is guaranteed, the pieces are in place for a dynamic and snowy end to the month. Skiers, snowmobilers, and winter sports enthusiasts should keep an eye on the forecast as we approach the holiday season.

Stay ahead of every development with the Noyes’ 1DegreeOutside Weather App, featuring a 14-day local forecast, real-time radar, and daily insights.