Pattern Predictions: First Glance Isn’t A Snow-Lover’s Dream, But There Is Potential!

It’s Monday, New Englanders! That means it’s time for this week’s Pattern Predictions, taking a detailed look at what the next two weeks have in store for us – check out the video from Matt Noyes for his thoughts on where snow potential can still be found in a pattern that, at first blush, doesn’t look great…especially in the first week.

The Polar Vortex remains a dominating force this week, delivering another round of frigid Arctic air to the eastern United States. Despite the persistent cold, the jet stream’s current alignment limits storm potential for New England. This “confluent flow” occurs when the Northern and Southern streams of the jet meet and merge just east of the region. While this can create powerful storms for areas like Nova Scotia and the Canadian Maritimes, it often leaves New England with fast-moving systems that bring only minor impacts.  For more on the coming days, check out our Insights video.

Next Week: Pattern Shift and Moderating Temperatures

The second week of this forecast period hints at a potential shift in the weather pattern. By late January, the Polar Vortex is expected to ease its grip slightly, allowing cold air to relax and warmer air to expand across the central and eastern United States.

While this may sound like bad news for snow lovers, it’s actually a bit more favorable setup for New England storms. With the jet stream still active and the “battle zone” between cold and warm air shifting closer to New England, the likelihood of disturbances producing snow increases.

• Why the Change Matters:
  The key to this shift is the interaction of upper-level disturbances with Gulf moisture. These ingredients could lead to more robust storm development, particularly toward the end of next week and beyond into early February.
• What to Expect:
  While there are no blockbuster storms currently on the horizon, this setup keeps New England “in the game.” The chance of meaningful snow increases as we head into February, particularly with multiple disturbances lined up along the jet stream.

A National Perspective: Arctic Outbreak and Gulf Coast Snowstorm

The impacts of this weather pattern extend far beyond New England. Arctic air has plunged deep into the southern United States, bringing frost and freeze warnings all the way to the Gulf Coast. In fact, parts of Texas, Louisiana, and even the Florida Panhandle could see measurable snow this week—a rare event for these areas.

What Does This Mean for New England?

In the immediate term, New Englanders should brace for bitter cold and limited snow chances, save perhaps for the South Coast. However, the second week of the forecast period brings hope for snow lovers, with a pattern shift that could increase the chances for accumulating snow as we close out January and head into February.

• The Key Takeaway:
  New England is still in the fight, with energetic disturbances and a more favorable storm track keeping the region in play for future snow events. While nothing significant is guaranteed, the next two weeks hold more promise than the first half of January did.

Stay Informed

You can track the evolution of these weather patterns daily with the Noyes’ 1DegreeOutside Weather App, which includes a 14-day forecast, radar, and updates on storm potential.

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