Thursday Insights: Cold Air Aloft the Driver for Showers/Storms

If you’re looking for the quick and easy forecast, check out our Noyes’s Notes and One Degree Outside Today video. But for those of you who love the deeper dive into meteorology, let’s get into it.

Current Weather Patterns

We’ve noticed a shift in the atmosphere recently—gone are the days of heavy, humid downpours. Instead, we’re seeing beautiful bubbling clouds with occasional thunder and lightning, but not much rain. This is due to the drier air now in place, resulting in lower rainfall totals.

You might have seen some interesting swirls in the atmosphere today, thanks to a decaying low-pressure system overhead. This pattern is becoming familiar, as northern disturbances keep dropping into New England. We’re seeing a cold pool of air aloft, particularly at about 18,000 feet, which is driving today’s weather.

What Does This Mean?

Today, the cold air aloft is creating the perfect conditions for isolated showers and thunderstorms. However, with less moisture in the air, these storms won’t bring significant rain. As we move into Friday and Saturday, the atmosphere will stabilize, bringing drier and more pleasant conditions.

By Sunday and Monday, the cold air aloft returns, albeit not as intense, which will increase the chances of scattered showers and storms again. These will likely be more prominent in the afternoons when the ground is warmest.

Looking Ahead to the Weekend

  • Friday: Expect a beautiful day with temperatures climbing near 80°F. The relaxing jet stream will bring more sun and comfortable air, making for a lovely end to the workweek.
  • Saturday: Even warmer, with highs between 80°F and 85°F. It’s going to feel like summer again, with a bit more humidity building in, but still pleasant overall.
  • Sunday: Scattered showers and thunderstorms return, especially in the afternoon. The humidity will continue to rise, aiding in the development of these storms.
  • Monday: Similar to Sunday, with scattered showers and storms possible as the cooler air aloft mixes with the warmth at the surface.

Mariners’ Outlook

For those heading out on the water, the wave height looks great in the coming days, especially after dealing with the Ernesto swell. Both nearshore and offshore conditions should be quiet, making for productive and enjoyable outings through Monday and beyond.

Humidity & Dew Points

As we head into early next week, expect the dew point to climb, bringing back a touch of humidity. It’s that classic late August to early September pattern where we see the humidity go up and down.

If you want to keep track of all these changes or get a 14-day forecast specific to your location, download our free Noyes 1 Degree Outside Weather app, available on the App Store and Google Play.