Thursday 1°Outside Today/Noyes’ Notes: Bitter Start, Messy Mix Friday

New Englanders are waking up to a bitterly cold morning today, with wind chills below zero in many areas. While we see some improvement this afternoon, the focus quickly shifts to Friday’s messy storm, which will bring a mix of snow, freezing rain, and rain.

National Weather Summary

A dynamic weather pattern is unfolding across the nation today, featuring severe storms, heavy rainfall, and mountain snow. A strong low-pressure system is shifting eastward from the Southern Plains into the Mississippi Valley, fueling widespread showers and thunderstorms. The severe weather threat is focused across eastern Texas, Louisiana, and the lower Mississippi Valley, where strong to isolated severe storms could produce damaging winds and large hail. The system will continue to push eastward, spreading rain into the Ohio Valley and interior Northeast by Friday.

Heavy rainfall and flash flooding concerns are heightened from the Ark-La-Tex region into the lower Ohio Valley, as deep Gulf moisture fuels intense downpours. Meanwhile, cold air wrapping around the backside of the system is producing snowfall across the higher elevations of the southern Rockies, with accumulations of up to a foot possible in parts of northern New Mexico and southern Colorado.

In the western U.S., a significant pattern shift is underway as an atmospheric river begins to impact the Pacific Northwest and northern California. Heavy mountain snow will accumulate across the Cascades and northern Rockies, while lower elevations experience soaking rainfall. This wet pattern will persist into the weekend, bringing potential flooding concerns along the coastal ranges of Oregon and California.

Temperatures remain above normal for much of the central and eastern U.S., with record highs possible in portions of the Midwest and Great Lakes. Meanwhile, the Northeast experiences a brief cooldown behind a departing cold front, but a warming trend resumes heading into the weekend. Arctic air lingers in the northern Plains, though its southward progression will be limited by developing ridging over the southern U.S.

Northeast Weather Story 

The Northeast is experiencing a brief reprieve from active weather today following a strong cold front that brought gusty winds and snow squalls on Wednesday. High pressure will build into the region, bringing dry and seasonably cold conditions through the day. While the region will see a mix of sun and clouds, temperatures will struggle to rise, with highs only in the 20s and wind chills in the single digits to below zero across northern New England.

Attention then turns to a developing low-pressure system that will track into the region late Thursday night into Friday. Initially, dry air will hold in place, but moisture advancing from the southwest will bring precipitation by early Friday morning. The setup favors a period of freezing rain across the interior, particularly in the valleys of eastern New York, Vermont, and western Massachusetts, where cold air will be stubborn to erode. Ice accretion may lead to hazardous travel conditions for the Friday morning commute, and winter weather advisories may be needed.

As warmer air surges in, precipitation will transition to rain for much of the region by Friday afternoon. However, the mountains of northern New England and the Adirondacks will remain cold enough to see accumulating snowfall, with several inches possible through Friday night. By late Friday, colder air wrapping around the system may change rain back to snow before precipitation tapers off into early Saturday.

Following this system, a colder and drier pattern returns for the weekend, with another reinforcing shot of Arctic air. Highs on Saturday will range from the teens in northern New England to the mid-30s in southern New England. Another system may bring light snow to the region late Sunday into Monday, but details remain uncertain at this time.

Motorists and travelers should prepare for slippery roads on Friday, especially in interior locations where freezing rain could lead to hazardous conditions. Stay tuned for updates as this complex system evolves.