A quiet, sunny Thursday sets the stage for a much more active stretch of weather. In this Noyes’ Notes update, Meteorologist Danielle Noyes shares the latest New England forecast and gives a special shout-out to Centerville Elementary’s K-1 students in Beverly, MA!
National Weather Summary
A deep, energetic upper-level trough continues to dominate the weather pattern across much of the country, keeping the nation’s weather dynamic and, in places, dangerous. Several storm systems, each driven by different embedded shortwaves in the jet stream, are making for active conditions coast-to-coast. A departing upper trough in the Northeast will continue to bring light snow to parts of New England and the interior Northeast through Thursday evening. A reinforcing cold front entering the region from the Great Lakes will add another chance for light snow or mixed precipitation through Friday.
In the West, a strong low-pressure system is sliding into the Pacific Northwest and California, delivering another round of rain and higher elevation snow, particularly to the Cascades and Sierra Nevada, where snow levels will drop from 8000 feet to around 4000 feet or lower by Friday. Snowfall rates may exceed 2″/hour in some areas, especially above 5000 feet. As the system moves inland, snow will spread into the Northern Rockies, where terrain-enhanced snowfall will persist through the weekend.
Of greater concern is the Southern Plains and Gulf Coast region, where deep moisture drawn from the Gulf of Mexico is interacting with upper-level energy and a stalled front near the Texas coast. This is setting the stage for multiple rounds of heavy rainfall and severe weather. A MODERATE RISK (level 3 of 4) for flash flooding remains in place for south-central and southeastern Texas into Thursday night, where numerous thunderstorms may repeatedly track over the same areas. Rainfall totals could locally exceed 8 inches between Wednesday and Thursday night, overwhelming even dry soils and leading to significant flash flooding.
Severe weather potential is also high in these same areas, with a SLIGHT RISK (level 2 of 5) of severe thunderstorms in place from the Texas Gulf Coast into the Central Plains, including threats of damaging winds, hail, and a few tornadoes. Meanwhile, another wave of energy will cross the central Rockies into the Plains Thursday, potentially touching off additional severe thunderstorms across parts of the Midwest.
A cooler air mass is gradually sliding eastward behind the cold fronts, bringing near- to below-normal temperatures to the western and central U.S., while above-normal warmth persists along the East Coast for one more day. This will change by the weekend as the frontal boundary shifts east and reinforces cooler air across much of the East.
Northeast Weather Story
Winter continues to make itself known across the Northeast U.S., albeit subtly, as a persistent upper-level trough keeps temperatures seasonably cool and allows for occasional snow showers—particularly across northern New England. For Thursday, any lingering snow showers from the departing upper disturbance will gradually diminish as high pressure noses into the region. However, a reinforcing cold front sliding south out of Canada will bring increased cloud cover Thursday night along with a few snow or rain showers, especially across upstate New York and northern New England.
Temperatures will be below normal on Thursday. Highs are expected to range from the upper 20s and 30s across the higher terrain of the Adirondacks, Greens, and Whites, to mid-40s in the valleys of southern New England and the Hudson Valley. Brisk northwest winds gusting to 20–25 mph in the afternoon will add a chill to the air, and relative humidity values will drop into the 20–30% range across interior valleys. This, combined with dry fuels and gusty winds, will lead to an elevated fire weather risk, particularly in parts of western New England and eastern New York.
Looking ahead to Thursday night, a weak wave of low pressure tracking east of the Great Lakes will send a weak cold front through the region. Scattered rain and snow showers may redevelop across upstate New York and interior New England—generally north of I-90—with little to no accumulation expected in lower elevations. In the higher terrain of the Adirondacks and Greens, however, a coating to an inch of snow is possible by Friday morning.
The aviation and marine sectors can expect generally VFR conditions through Thursday, though gusty winds and a few passing showers may briefly reduce visibility late Thursday night. Winds on the coastal waters will gradually shift to the west and southwest, increasing to near 20 knots by Thursday evening, with ocean seas building to near 5 feet by late Thursday night.
By Friday, temperatures briefly moderate ahead of an approaching warm front, but unsettled and increasingly complex weather is expected to return this weekend with the threat for a wintry mix transitioning to rain and more widespread precipitation. Until then, enjoy a brief but chilly period of drier weather as the region transitions from late March into early spring.
