With today’s near-record warmth will come a building brush fire danger, but also a chance to enjoy shorts during the afternoon! Matt Noyes tells us this warmth continues through midweek, but in his focus on the next 24-hours, he also looks at our lingering chance to view the Comet A3 and Orionid meteor shower in Noyes’ Notes!
As of early Monday, a broad upper-level low continues to shift eastward from the Four Corners region, bringing diminishing rain and snow across the Southern High Plains and Central Rockies. The heaviest precipitation has already fallen, but localized runoff concerns remain due to lingering storms in southeastern Colorado, the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles, and northeastern New Mexico. These areas are under a slight risk of excessive rainfall through this morning, with flash flooding still a possibility, particularly over sensitive burn scar regions.
Meanwhile, an ongoing weak atmospheric river event is bringing steady rain to the Pacific Northwest, with additional rainfall expected through Monday, particularly over the Olympics and Cascades. This rain, combined with already saturated conditions, could lead to localized flooding in some areas. Rainfall will gradually shift into the Northern Rockies by late Monday, but snow accumulations will remain confined to the highest peaks.
A robust upper ridge remains in control over the central and northern United States, leading to above-average temperatures in the Plains, Upper Midwest, and eventually the Northeast. Some areas in the Upper Midwest will experience highs up to 20-30 degrees above normal, pushing into the 70s and even low 80s, accompanied by unseasonably mild overnight lows. However, a cold front tied to an upper-level trough moving across southern Canada will begin to push eastward midweek, bringing cooler temperatures and scattered showers to the Great Lakes and Northeast by Wednesday.
For Monday and into the early part of the week, high pressure dominates the weather pattern across New England and Upstate New York, providing an extended period of warm, dry conditions. Afternoon temperatures are forecast to soar well above normal, with highs in the low to mid-70s across much of the region, even approaching 80°F in southern New England, including the Connecticut River Valley. These readings are 15-20 degrees warmer than typical for late October. With plenty of sunshine and only light breezes, it will feel more like early September than mid-autumn.
Overnight lows will be milder as well, with most areas in the 40s to lower 50s, and patchy radiational cooling in more rural valleys could result in readings in the upper 30s. Morning fog, particularly in river valleys, could reduce visibility briefly but will burn off quickly after sunrise.
By Wednesday night into Thursday, a cold front will approach from the Great Lakes, bringing the next chance of showers to the region. Rainfall with this system will be mostly light to moderate and scattered, focused mainly north of I-90, with areas farther south remaining dry. In the wake of the front, cooler, breezy conditions will set in for Thursday and Friday, with highs returning to the upper 50s and low 60s. Though it will feel more seasonable, the extended dry spell will end only briefly, with little widespread relief expected for drought-stricken areas.
For those enjoying the marine waters and outdoor activities, the forecast suggests favorable conditions with light winds and low seas through midweek, although small craft advisories may be needed on Thursday as winds pick up behind the front. Fire weather remains a concern early in the week, particularly on Monday, due to the warm temperatures and low humidity across parts of Connecticut, Massachusetts, and interior southern New England, where vegetation remains dry and winds could become gusty.
