After a frosty and frozen start to our Tuesday for many, clouds will quickly increase in response to a collision of air aloft: warmth arriving and clashing with the cold already in place. Eventually, this is the process that leads us to our near-record warm Halloween, but for now…it’s a process that will fill our sky with advancing clouds and keep temperatures cool. Oh, and we hope you like the wakeup video from the Sacred Hearts School in Bradford, MA!
National Meteorological Summary
A deepening trough over the western U.S. will drive a significant winter storm into the Rockies by Wednesday, bringing heavy mountain snow, cold temperatures, and freeze risks to the region. Snow accumulations of 6-12 inches, with locally higher amounts, are expected in the central Rockies and high passes of Wyoming, Colorado, and Utah. As cold air funnels into the plains behind the storm, strong, moisture-rich southerly flow will build ahead of a progressing cold front, bringing potential severe thunderstorms with hail and damaging winds to the Plains and Mississippi Valley through midweek. Severe storms on Wednesday are likely from Iowa south to northeast Texas, with enhanced flash flooding risks in areas where repeated heavy rain may occur, especially from southern Wisconsin to northeast Texas.
Meanwhile, unseasonably warm temperatures continue to spread eastward, with many areas in the Central and Eastern U.S. seeing temperatures 20 to 30 degrees above seasonal averages. Record highs are expected across the Midwest and East, and portions of the Northeast could see temperatures near or above 80°F by Thursday. Dry conditions, coupled with gusty winds, will heighten fire weather concerns in parts of the Plains and Midwest. A cold front will cross the eastern U.S. Friday, bringing a moderation in temperatures for the weekend, though the upper-level pattern supports continued warmth across the Southeast. As the front slows in the southern Plains, rain will likely persist, with heavy rainfall risks spreading into the Central Plains by early next week. The West, particularly California, will prepare for a second incoming Pacific storm, bringing renewed precipitation and high-elevation snow to the mountains into next week.
Northeast Weather Story
A shift in the weather pattern will bring both record-breaking warmth and needed rainfall to the Northeast over the next few days. Tuesday evening’s warm front will push through New England, delivering scattered rain showers mainly across Upstate New York and northern New England with generally light rain totals, from a tenth to a quarter inch. Although this will provide some relief from ongoing dry conditions, the majority of precipitation will occur overnight and clear by Wednesday morning. Onshore flow and moderate rain rates along the coast could bring locally higher amounts in western Maine and northern New Hampshire, where totals could approach a half inch.
By Wednesday, a pronounced ridge will establish over the Eastern U.S., leading to a significant warm-up. Much of New England will experience temperatures reaching the upper 60s to low 70s, while Connecticut, southern New Hampshire, and Massachusetts could see mid to upper 70s. This warming trend will peak on Thursday, with near-record or record-breaking temperatures across the region. Highs are expected to reach the mid to upper 70s in northern New England, while southern New England and the valleys may approach or exceed 80°F. With southwesterly winds increasing up to 20-25 mph, elevated fire weather concerns will persist, particularly in New York’s Hudson Valley and parts of central and western Massachusetts.
Overnight Thursday, a cold front will approach from the Great Lakes, sweeping through New England on Friday morning. This front will bring a renewed round of rain showers—potentially moderate but quick-moving—with the heaviest rainfall likely occurring in northern Vermont, New Hampshire, and western Maine. While rainfall amounts will generally range from a quarter to a half inch, fast-moving bands may produce brief, heavy rain, impacting morning commutes and visibility. A marked drop in temperatures will follow the frontal passage, with highs on Friday returning to more seasonal values in the 50s and low 60s across much of the Northeast.
The weekend will usher in high pressure, leading to dry and cooler conditions. Temperatures will range in the low to mid-50s during the day, with overnight lows dropping into the 30s in many areas, signaling a true return to fall. While dry conditions should prevail, a southerly shift in the flow could bring some mild warming into early next week, though no major storm systems are anticipated. This pattern will also favor a gradual rebound of temperatures above seasonal norms into next week, providing continued comfortable conditions for early November.
