Matt Noyes starts with a recap of how much rain fell overnight – not a lot, but every little bit helps. Matt also outlines the arrival of warmth today and the return of gusty wind at times overnight tonight, plus Noyes’ Notes gives insight through the weekend. Speaking of insights – if you’d like the deeper dive into weather for the next several days, our Insights video from yesterday is up on our home page at 1DegreeOutside.com and still very much applicable, plus we’ll have a new one out shortly to the homepage and app.
A warming trend continues across the eastern and central U.S. today as a strong ridge of high pressure centers over the Mid-Atlantic and southeastern states, elevating temperatures across the Great Lakes, Ohio Valley, and Northeast. Many areas in these regions, especially in the Ohio Valley and Northeast, are expected to see temperatures up to 20-30 degrees above average, nearing record highs for late October. In the western U.S., a colder, active pattern is ongoing as multiple low-pressure systems move onshore, bringing rain and snow to the Pacific Northwest, northern Rockies, and portions of the Great Basin.
Severe thunderstorms pose a significant risk today in parts of the Central Plains and Middle Mississippi Valley, with the Storm Prediction Center issuing an Enhanced Risk for severe storms. Primary hazards include damaging winds, large hail, and a few tornadoes, with the potential for strong tornadoes later today. By Thursday, the threat of strong storms will shift toward the Lower Mississippi Valley and Upper Great Lakes, though intensity is expected to decrease.
In the north-central U.S., a powerful cold front will bring accumulating snow across parts of Minnesota and northern Wisconsin, extending to Michigan’s Upper Peninsula. Heavy snow is anticipated in this region through Thursday. Farther west, another Pacific front moves through the Northwest into California, bringing moderate to heavy mountain snow from the Cascades to the northern Rockies, with rain spreading into Northern California.
The Northeast will experience an unseasonably warm and stable weather pattern through Thursday. High pressure centered over the Mid-Atlantic will push a warm front northward today, allowing a surge of warm and humid air to flow across New England and New York. Morning showers in northern New England will gradually clear, and temperatures will rise into the mid-60s to mid-70s this afternoon. Some areas in Massachusetts, Connecticut, and southern Vermont may flirt with record high temperatures today as well as Thursday when high temperatures in the 70s, and even lower 80s, are expected, especially in southern New England and New York’s Hudson Valley. This unusual warmth will create a memorable Halloween evening with mild and dry conditions, ideal for outdoor activities.
Tonight, light winds and humid conditions may lead to areas of patchy fog, particularly in river valleys and eastern Maine. Thursday will likely break additional records with near full sun and highs in the 70s to lower 80s for much of southern New England and central New York, while upper 60s and low 70s will prevail in northern and coastal Maine. Southwest winds will increase slightly Thursday afternoon ahead of an approaching cold front, leading to wind gusts of 15-20 mph, particularly over higher elevations.
A cold front will arrive Thursday night into early Friday morning, initially bringing scattered showers to New York and western New England. The rain may weaken as it progresses eastward, likely producing only a tenth of an inch or less in most areas, though isolated pockets of heavier showers are possible in the Adirondacks and the northern Green Mountains. This frontal passage will be accompanied by cooler temperatures and brisk northwest winds on Friday, with gusts between 20-30 mph, particularly in the Berkshires, Catskills, and Green Mountains.
Behind the front, high pressure will bring a seasonably cool and dry weekend to the Northeast. Saturday highs will settle into the 40s in the mountains and mid-50s in lower elevations, with overnight lows dipping into the 20s and 30s, marking the first true taste of late autumn air across New England. Clear skies and lighter winds will help temperatures gradually moderate, and by Monday, warmer air will begin moving in from the south with another round of above-normal temperatures into midweek.
In summary, New England residents should anticipate two very warm and mostly dry days before Friday’s cold front brings cooler, drier air for the weekend, with conditions favorable for a safe, warm Halloween.
