It’s a chilly start to the new week, with kids and adults alike wanting to bundle up heading out the door to a hard freeze in many spots. While we won’t see a huge rebound today, a light wind of change from the southeast will begin later, eventually kicking up tomorrow into Wednesday to bump our temperatures back into the 70s! Matt Noyes has your Noyes’ Notes and 1°Outside Today, looking at the next 24 hours. Want to look farther out? See Sunday’s Evening Essentials from last evening by clicking here, or be sure to check out our Monday Insights video, posted later this morning to the website and app!
A powerful, multi-faceted storm system will create notable weather impacts across the nation this week. In the South-Central U.S., severe weather, including damaging winds, hail, and tornadoes, is expected to continue into Monday night across eastern Oklahoma, northern Texas, and surrounding areas. Heavy rain from these storms may also cause localized flash flooding, particularly in parts of Oklahoma and Arkansas. A cold front will drive this severe weather eastward by Monday night, with the threat shifting toward the Arklatex and Mid-Mississippi Valley through midweek.
Meanwhile, winter weather affects the Western U.S., with mountain snow tapering off Monday in the central Rockies but resuming in the Pacific Northwest, where a new system will bring heavy snow and strong winds to the northern Cascades and Rockies. Snow accumulations of over eight inches are likely at higher elevations Monday and Tuesday, creating hazardous travel conditions.
East of the Mississippi River, record-breaking warmth is anticipated early this week as high pressure shifts eastward and warm southerly winds sweep across the Plains, Midwest, Great Lakes, and East Coast. Daytime temperatures will be up to 20 degrees above average, with widespread 60s and 70s across the Midwest and Northeast, while parts of the Southeast may see temperatures in the 80s.
The Northeast will experience a dry start to the week with high pressure in control through Monday, though conditions will moderate as the region transitions into a warm, breezy pattern by midweek. Chilly morning lows across New England Monday give way to warmer conditions as a warm front advances from the west. High temperatures Monday will climb to the 50s in most areas, but still fall short of the record warmth expected by Tuesday and Wednesday.
From Tuesday into Wednesday, warmer air will surge northward with temperatures expected to reach the upper 60s and lower 70s across much of southern New England, and potentially the mid-70s on Wednesday. This warming trend will be accompanied by gusty southerly winds reaching 20-25 mph in exposed areas, enhancing fire weather concerns in dry locations and impacting travel for high-profile vehicles. Coastal waters will see rougher conditions due to these gusty winds.
As a weak cold front approaches from the west on Wednesday, low clouds will increase, with slight chances for scattered rain showers developing late in the day, particularly in western New England and New York State. However, most areas will remain dry with minimal rainfall, while temperatures continue well above average. Near-record high temperatures could be reached on Wednesday, with the warmest conditions in the lower elevations and urban areas of southern New England.
For late-week, a cooler pattern will settle in behind the departing cold front, but daytime highs will remain above seasonal averages, generally in the upper 50s to low 60s, before tapering further over the weekend. Elevated fire weather risks will persist through Thursday as dry, warm conditions continue before higher humidity and an eventual chance for showers return with another frontal boundary by Sunday. Mariners should note that small craft advisories are likely Tuesday into Wednesday as winds strengthen ahead of the front, with some moderation expected by Thursday as high pressure begins to rebuild across the region.
