National Meteorological Summary
Monday, November 18, 2024
The U.S. is dominated by two major weather systems this week, each bringing impactful weather to their respective regions:
- Central U.S. Storm System:
A potent low-pressure system is intensifying across the southern Plains today, progressing northeast into the Midwest by Tuesday. This system will bring severe thunderstorms to parts of central Oklahoma and northern Texas, with damaging winds and isolated tornadoes possible. Heavy rainfall extending from eastern Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle may cause localized flash flooding, especially in urban and low-lying areas. On the northern side of the system, moderate snowfall with gusty winds could create hazardous travel conditions across North Dakota and northern Minnesota through Wednesday.
- Pacific Northwest and California Atmospheric River:
A powerful Pacific low-pressure system is impacting the Northwest, bringing heavy mountain snow and strong winds. By midweek, an atmospheric river will target northern California and southwestern Oregon, with rainfall amounts of 4-7 inches likely, leading to potential flooding and mudslides. Snow levels will initially be high but are expected to drop by late Wednesday, bringing significant snowfall to the Cascades and Sierra Nevada.
Elsewhere, the eastern U.S. remains quiet under the influence of high pressure, with mild and dry conditions prevailing through Tuesday. However, a pattern shift by midweek will bring rain and cooler temperatures as an upper-level low deepens over the Great Lakes and Northeast.
Northeast Weather Story
The Northeast begins the week with mostly quiet conditions, though some weak fronts will provide minimal disruptions before a more impactful system arrives midweek.
- Today:
A weak cold front is crossing the region, bringing scattered light rain showers, mainly across northern New York and New England. Upslope areas in the Adirondacks, Greens, and White Mountains may see isolated snow showers at higher elevations, but accumulations will be negligible. Northwest winds will pick up behind the front, gusting 20-30 mph. Despite the front’s passage, temperatures will remain above normal, with highs in the upper 40s to mid-50s.
- Tuesday and Wednesday:
High pressure will dominate, providing dry weather and partly to mostly sunny skies. Temperatures will continue to be mild, with highs in the 50s and lows in the 30s. Winds will be lighter compared to Monday. By Wednesday evening, clouds will increase as a strengthening low-pressure system approaches from the Great Lakes.
- Midweek Storm (Wednesday Night through Friday):
A developing storm will bring widespread rain to the Northeast beginning late Wednesday night. Rainfall amounts of 1-1.5 inches are likely through Thursday, with higher amounts possible in the upslope areas of the Berkshires, Greens, and Whites. Winds will shift easterly, with gusts potentially exceeding 30 mph along the coast and higher elevations. Small Craft Advisories and Gale Warnings likely midweek through Friday due to rough seas and gusty winds.
- Thursday Night into Friday: Colder air wrapping around the system may cause rain to transition to snow over the higher elevations, including the Berkshires, northern Adirondacks, and northern Vermont. Early indications suggest light to moderate snow accumulations at elevations above 1,500 feet, with potential travel impacts as slippery roads in higher elevations late Thursday into Friday.
- Late Week into the Weekend:
The storm will gradually weaken as it meanders over the Northeast. Scattered rain and snow showers will persist Friday into Saturday, especially in the mountains. Coastal areas will remain breezy and raw, with temperatures dropping into the 40s by day and 30s at night.
