National Meteorological Summary:
A dynamic weather pattern is set to deliver a wide variety of impactful weather across the United States today and into the coming days.
- East Coast Storm: A powerful low-pressure system will bring widespread heavy rainfall from the Southeast to New England today, with 1-3 inches of rain expected along the I-95 corridor and locally higher amounts possible. Urban and poor drainage flooding remains a concern, particularly for metro areas. Strong southerly winds ahead of the associated cold front could gust 50-60 mph, especially in coastal regions from the Carolinas to southern New England. These winds will shift to the northwest after the frontal passage, bringing much colder air into the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic. Snow will develop in the western Appalachians and parts of the interior Northeast tonight, while lake-effect snow intensifies downwind of the Great Lakes into Thursday.
- Southern U.S.: Scattered strong thunderstorms may develop along the Gulf Coast and into the Southeast. Some storms could become severe, with damaging winds and isolated tornadoes as primary threats. Warm, humid air persists ahead of the cold front, but cooler conditions will settle in behind the storm system by Thursday.
- Midwest & Great Lakes: Arctic air surging into the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes will generate active lake-effect snow through Thursday, with snowfall rates of 1-2 inches per hour in favored snow belts. Some areas, particularly in western New York and Michigan, may see totals exceeding a foot by the end of the event. Daytime highs will be 10-25°F below normal in the Northern Plains and Midwest, with subzero wind chills expected.
- Western U.S.: High pressure dominates the West, maintaining dry and mild weather for much of the region. Southern California remains at risk for Santa Ana winds, which could exacerbate fire weather concerns. However, a new storm system will begin to approach the Pacific Northwest late Thursday, spreading rain along the coast and snow to the Cascades.
Northeast Weather Story:
A rapidly intensifying coastal storm will dominate the weather in the Northeast today, bringing significant impacts from heavy rain, strong winds, and wintry precipitation.
- Heavy Rain and Flooding Concerns: Widespread heavy rain will develop today and continue through tonight, with 1.5 to 3 inches expected across the region. Southern New England and coastal areas may see isolated totals exceeding 4 inches. Urban and small stream flooding is likely, especially where leaf-clogged drains impede runoff. A Flood Watch is in effect for portions of western New England and eastern New York, where snowmelt may enhance flood risks.
- Strong Winds: Ahead of the storm’s cold front, a powerful low-level jet will drive south-southeast winds gusting to 50-60 mph, particularly along the coastal plain and eastern Massachusetts. High Wind Warnings are in effect for parts of southern New England and eastern Long Island. These winds could lead to power outages and downed trees, especially in areas with saturated soils.
- Transition to Wintry Precipitation: Colder air wrapping into the system tonight will change rain to snow across the Adirondacks, Catskills, and northern Vermont. Snowfall totals in higher elevations may reach 2-6 inches, with isolated higher amounts. Lake-effect snow will develop in western New York by Wednesday night, bringing locally heavy snow to the Tug Hill Plateau and western Adirondacks.
- Late-Week Cold Surge: Following the storm, temperatures will plunge Thursday into Friday, with highs struggling to reach the 30s in most areas. Wind chills will dip into the teens, and gusty northwest winds will make for a blustery end to the week. Lake-effect snow bands will continue downwind of Lakes Erie and Ontario, with additional accumulations possible in western New York and northern Vermont.
