Tuesday’s Noyes’ Notes/1°Outside Today: Unseasonably Warm Election Day, Fire Danger in Gusty Breezy

As dry conditions persist, fire danger remains high across New England this week. With fire risks peaking, many towns and cities have placed temporary bans on outdoor burning. For areas without official bans, it’s best to avoid outdoor fires as a precaution. Strong, gusty winds are expected to persist through midweek, with gusts up to 30 mph in southern New England today. These gusts will continue to pose a risk for fire spread in these dry conditions.

Otherwise, the Election Day forecast brings no significant weather issues. Any lingering showers wane and depart, giving way to increasing sunshine, an increasing wind and rising temperatures.  For kids off from school today, it’s a great day to get outdoors and enjoy the mild air! And if you’re heading to the polls, you’ll be greeted with warm temperatures and minimal weather interruptions.

National Weather Summary:

The primary weather features across the United States include a significant low-pressure system centered in the Plains and Midwest, Tropical Storm Rafael, and another potent storm impacting the Pacific Northwest. A dynamic storm system will continue to produce heavy rain and possible flooding across Oklahoma, Missouri, and Arkansas, with isolated severe storms moving into the Mid-Mississippi Valley by Wednesday. Along the Gulf Coast, the approach of Tropical Storm Rafael into the Gulf of Mexico will enhance moisture and bring showers to South Florida, including the Florida Keys, with winds strengthening over open waters.

To the north and east, a strong ridge of high pressure extending from the Gulf to the East Coast will keep temperatures well above average across much of the eastern United States, with potential record warmth expected from the Great Lakes to the East Coast through midweek. High temperatures in the 70s to lower 80s are likely in the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic, with lows unusually mild, in the 50s and 60s.

Meanwhile, another robust low-pressure system and associated cold front will bring rain, mountain snow, and gusty winds to the Pacific Northwest and Northern Rockies, with snow accumulating at higher elevations in the Cascades and Rockies. Colder temperatures will spread behind this front, with lows dropping into the 20s in many valleys and the teens in higher terrain.

Northeast Weather Summary:

A period of unseasonable warmth is forecast across the Northeast today as high pressure off the East Coast circulates warm, southerly winds into the region. Temperatures will climb into the 60s and lower 70s across most areas, with readings near 75 degrees in some lower elevations, especially in southern New England and the Hudson Valley. Even the typically cooler mountain regions will see highs in the upper 50s to mid-60s, well above the November average.

A warm front extending through Quebec will keep northern areas cloudier, with a chance of light rain showers across northern New York and northern New England, particularly in Maine and parts of Vermont and New Hampshire. Most precipitation will be light and sporadic, but persistent clouds may limit afternoon warmth in these northern locales.

Late tonight, as the warm front fully lifts northward, skies will gradually clear from southwest to northeast. Mild conditions are expected overnight, with lows ranging from the mid-50s across southern New England to around 40 degrees in northern New York and northern Maine. Patchy fog may develop in valleys where winds remain calm.

Coastal and marine interests will see increased southerly winds, especially over the outer waters of the Atlantic, with gusts of 20-25 knots by Tuesday night. Seas will build, with waves increasing to 5-6 feet offshore. Mariners are advised to monitor conditions and small craft advisories expected through Wednesday.

Key Impacts

  • Travel: Mild temperatures and mostly dry weather will support favorable travel conditions across the Northeast. Some minor delays may be possible in northern New England where light rain showers persist.
  • Marine and Coastal: Small craft advisories will be in effect along coastal waters as gusty southerly winds develop and seas build. Mariners should exercise caution in these areas.
  • Outdoor Activities: Warm and dry conditions are ideal for outdoor activities across most of the region, though patchy morning fog and a slight chance of showers in northern sections should be anticipated.

Looking ahead to Wednesday, warmth will peak across New England, with many locations challenging record highs. A cold front will bring cooler conditions by late week, accompanied by gusty winds and a return to seasonal temperatures.