Wednesday Insights: As Brush Fire Spread Rises, Saturday Showers Are in Focus

New England’s stretch of beautiful weather is continuing, but as we look toward the weekend, things begin to change – and fire danger remains elevated in several parts of the region.

As Matt Noyes explains in today’s Insights video, a split-flow jet stream is keeping much of the deeper moisture and energy separate – meaning scattered showers are possible Thursday and Friday, but not widespread rain. That changes Saturday, with a stronger storm system bringing more organized rain, especially early in the day.

“The rain chance on Saturday is very high – near 100% – but there may still be a break in the action, especially late morning into mid-afternoon,” Matt notes.

🔥 Brush Fire Risk

With very dry conditions and leafless trees, brush is drying quickly under April sun. Expect elevated fire spread conditions in parts of:

  • Merrimack Valley

  • South Shore (inland)

  • Lower Connecticut River Valley

  • Portions of interior Maine

Use caution with any outdoor burning.

🌧️ Weekend Rain Timeline

  • Thursday: Isolated showers possible, mostly north of the Mass Pike

  • Friday: More clouds, a few scattered showers, especially northern areas

  • Saturday: Organized rain moves in by morning. There could be a lull late morning–early afternoon in southern New England

  • Saturday evening/night: More rain

  • Sunday: Drying out for most, but showers may linger in the mountains

❄️ Frost Potential North

No frost risk through Friday night, but Sunday night may bring valley frost in northern New England, particularly where skies clear and winds calm.

📊 Rainfall Totals Through Weekend

  • Southern New England: 0.50″ to 0.75″

  • Northern New England: Around 1″