Wednesday Insights: Halloween Warmth En Route, Variable Winds Ahead

Matt Noyes takes us on the deep-dive into the meteorology behind the forecast and explains why it is we see winds so different in one spot from another, even within a town – of course, changes in wind are crucial to fire and smoke spread.  Regarding fire and smoke, Matt also shares that we’ve activated the 1DegreeOutside Livestream for continuous, real-time maps (updating every 15 minutes) pertinent to brush fire and smoke spread, including current air quality, which has been showing notable changes hour to hour.  You can find that at livestream.1degreeoutside.com, or at the bottom of our Noyes’ 1DegreeOutside Weather app by tapping the livestream window.  That livestream is fueled by our Twitch livestream (https://www.twitch.tv/1degreeoutside) but can also be found on our YouTube Channel, 1DegreeOutside (https://www.youtube.com/@1DegreeOutside).

Wind Variability and Fire Spread Conditions

The overnight wind forecast has quieted slightly for wind, with gusts now expected around 15 mph. For those asking about varying wind strengths by neighborhood, here’s what you should know:

  • Terrain and Elevation Effects: Hills may block or intensify wind in different areas. The differences we saw last night—Methuen at 8 mph vs. Rockport at 31 mph—are due to local elevations, exposure to the coast and how valleys trap cooler air, dampening wind impacts.
  • Humidity Levels: Today and tomorrow’s winds will carry some moisture, slightly lessening the fire spread risk compared to the dry gusts of earlier this week.

However, as we get into Friday, the arrival of a dry, cold front brings gusts over 30 mph. This sets up an ideal environment for fire spread in brushfire-affected areas, particularly Essex County, where the dry, steady wind will significantly increase the risk.

Halloween Forecast and Fire Conditions

Halloween arrives with record-challenging warmth and breezy conditions:

  • Morning to Midday: Patchy fog, gradually lifting to reveal sunshine.
  • Afternoon: Temperatures climb to a near-record 80°F in spots.
  • Evening (Trick-or-Treat Time): Temperatures stay around 70°F with a mild breeze, making for a pleasant, if unusually warm, Halloween.

While great for outdoor activities, keep brushfire awareness in mind. Following local fire department updates is crucial for anyone in smoke-prone or fire-sensitive regions.

Extended Forecast and Cooler Air for the Weekend

  • Friday: A mild start with an isolated shower possible as the cold front swings through. Gusts will increase in the afternoon, reaching over 30 mph, as cooler, dry air arrives from the northwest.
  • Saturday and Sunday: The weekend brings cool, dry conditions perfect for outdoor plans, with highs in the mid-50s. However, dry air persists, so fire danger remains a concern.
  • Early Next Week: A slight chance of showers Monday into early Tuesday—adding only around a tenth of an inch of rain, so it’s unlikely to make a substantial difference in moisture levels.

Stay Updated

For continuous updates on brushfire conditions and record-breaking warmth, follow our Noyes’ 1DegreeOutside App or check 1DegreeOutside.com. Stay informed with real-time conditions, the latest weather forecasts, and more.

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