We say Insights is the deep dive into the science of meteorology behind the forecast, and we mean it! In today’s deep dive…With an abundance of atmospheric moisture, rainfall rates will be high where downpours and thunderstorms hit. That said, Matt Noyes expects lower humidity Thursday, followed by a return into the weekend that raises the chance of downpours and thunder again.
Rainfall and Current Conditions
The observed rainfall map looks a lot different than it did 24 hours ago. Fortunately, Northern New England didn’t pick up much rain over the past day, but more downpours are expected today. The water vapor imagery shows significant moisture in the atmosphere, especially in Northern New England, where moisture levels are about twice the normal for this date. This means any rain will be very efficient, leading to potential heavy downpours.
Today’s Weather
- Disturbance: An upper-level atmospheric disturbance will help focus showers and storms today, particularly given the high moisture content.
- Rain: Expect scattered showers and downpours, with the potential for isolated damaging winds. While the probability of a tornado is low, it’s not impossible.
- Flood Threat: The greatest flood threat is in central Vermont to central and northern New Hampshire. Our proprietary data predicts up to three and a half inches of rain in places like Roxbury, Vermont, today into tonight.
Looking Ahead: Thursday and Beyond
- Thursday: There will be a break in the rain with generally decreasing humidity. The chance of showers and storms will be lower, with better coverage across central and northern Maine. The rest of us may see an isolated shower or storm, particularly in the afternoon.
- Friday: Daytime hours should be fairly quiet, but new storms may develop by evening, especially in western Connecticut and western Massachusetts. These could lead to localized flash flooding by night if they organize enough.
- Saturday: Right now it appears possible we’ll see showers in the morning, a break around midday, and then more showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. Southern New England will have a high chance of heavy downpours. All that said, it’s early to get specific on hours it rains and doesn’t.
- Sunday: A more traditional shower/storm day with developing showers and storms as the day progresses. Humidity remains high all weekend.
Tropics Update
The National Hurricane Center continues a 60% chance of development for a disturbance approaching the Bahamas. Currently, this disturbance is battling Saharan dust, which is inhibiting development. However, as it moves into more favorable conditions by the weekend, development chances increase. For now, New England appears to be less at risk due to strong westerlies expected to dominate early next week.
Stay Updated
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