Good morning friends! Danielle shares the chilly but bright forecast for New England and lets you know that there are some coastal concerns over the next couple of days with astronomical high tides. Her kids are heading out the door in winter coats & hats this morning – and yours may want to consider that too! Fire danger does remain elevated, particularly in southern and eastern New England where drought conditions are the worst. Matt will have the updated drought monitor and details through the weekend in Insights later on today.
The weather across the U.S. will be marked by active systems impacting the Pacific Northwest and parts of the Southeast, while colder air pushes into the Northeast. A strong atmospheric river event will bring heavy rain and mountain snow to the Pacific Northwest, extending into northern California and the northern Rockies. As moisture flows into the region, precipitation rates will increase over mountainous terrain, with snow accumulations expected in higher elevations. These systems will gradually weaken today, though continued rain and snowfall are likely in the western mountains.
Much of the Central U.S. will experience a continuation of warmer-than-average temperatures, with highs reaching 70s and 80s from Texas to the Gulf Coast. By Friday, colder air will reinforce cool conditions in the Northeast, with highs in the 30s and 40s across New England. The Mid-Atlantic and Carolinas will see seasonable temperatures with highs in the 40s to low 60s, while the Gulf states remain warmer under high pressure.
Across New England and upstate New York, the primary weather story will be cooling temperatures and dry conditions under high pressure, but coastal areas will see an uptick in wind and coastal flooding concerns. High pressure centered over southern Quebec will maintain mostly clear skies through today. Cold morning lows will reach the teens to low 20s in interior New England, with mid-20s to lower 30s near the coast. Daytime highs will remain in the 40s to near 50°F, about five degrees below average for mid-November.
This evening, a developing low-pressure system offshore will move west toward the Canadian Maritimes. As the low intensifies, northeastern New England and coastal areas may experience gusty northerly winds, especially along the Maine and New Hampshire coasts, and parts of southeastern New England. This system will also increase cloud cover later today into Friday for much of the region, with rain showers possibly reaching far northeastern Maine by Friday morning. Snow or a mix of snow and freezing rain could develop in northern Maine as temperatures remain near or below freezing, potentially leading to slick travel conditions on untreated roads.
With the approaching full moon, tides will reach their highest levels of the month, and strong northerly winds may result in minor coastal flooding, especially along the eastern shores of Massachusetts and Maine. The risk for flooding will be most pronounced during the Friday and Saturday morning high tide cycles, where tidal piling could lead to water levels exceeding minor flood thresholds. Some road inundations and flooding of vulnerable areas along the coast may occur.
The high-pressure system will maintain dry conditions for interior regions into the weekend. However, fuel moisture remains low due to recent dry weather, particularly in southern New England and portions of New York and Vermont, where low relative humidity will persist. While winds will not be as strong as earlier this week, fire risk remains moderate to high in dry inland areas due to low humidity.
By the weekend, temperatures will begin a warming trend, with highs reaching closer to average values in the 50s across much of the Northeast by Sunday, as high pressure holds.
