As we head into the first Friday of April, a quiet and mild day unfolds across New England — perfect timing for the Red Sox home opener at Fenway Park!
A sprawling, potent spring storm continues to dominate much of the central United States, with far-reaching impacts extending from the Rockies eastward to the Ohio and Mississippi Valleys. This multi-day, slow-moving event is producing a trifecta of hazardous weather: catastrophic flash flooding, widespread severe thunderstorms, and moderate to heavy snow across parts of the Rockies and High Plains.
At the surface, a quasi-stationary frontal boundary—anchored by a broad upper-level trough—is stretched from the central Appalachians southwest into Texas. Deep southerly flow ahead of this front is channeling extremely moist air into the Ohio and Mississippi Valleys, fueling a prolonged, high-impact flash flood event. Repeated rounds of thunderstorms, often training over the same saturated areas, are dropping 2–4 inches of rain per round, with localized totals exceeding 10 inches since midweek. High Risks (Level 4/4) for excessive rainfall remain in place across Arkansas, Missouri, and parts of the Mid-South today, shifting eastward into Kentucky, Tennessee, and the lower Ohio Valley over the weekend.
Alongside the flooding, a significant severe weather threat is unfolding. Strong instability, very moist air, and pronounced wind shear support supercells capable of large hail (2+ inches), damaging winds, and strong to potentially violent tornadoes—particularly from the ArkLaTex into western Arkansas. The SPC has issued a Moderate Risk (Level 4/5) for severe storms in this region, including a heightened threat for long-tracked tornadoes.
Meanwhile, wintry weather persists across the Rockies and High Plains. Heavy snow continues across the central Rockies, especially in the Colorado Front Range and Sangre de Cristo Mountains, with accumulations of 8–12 inches or more. Upslope flow and embedded shortwaves are contributing to this activity, which will shift eastward into the Plains this weekend. Light snow also brushes the northern Plains into North Dakota, where several inches are possible.
Temperature-wise, a stark contrast exists across the country. Much of the Southeast remains entrenched in summerlike warmth, with highs in the 80s and low 90s and numerous record highs falling. In contrast, the western and central U.S. are 10–25 degrees below normal, with highs only in the 30s and 40s across the Rockies and northern Plains.
New England and Upstate New York are catching a brief breather today between systems, but it won’t last long. A weak cold front passed through overnight and is now stalled offshore. In its wake, a transient ridge of high pressure is allowing for clearing skies, drier conditions, and seasonably mild temperatures to close out the work week.
Skies are already clearing from north to south, with daytime highs reaching the low to mid 60s in southern New England and mid to upper 50s farther north—thanks to modest warm air aloft and downsloping northwest winds. Winds are breezy at times, gusting 20–25 mph, especially through interior valleys and across the Berkshires and Monadnocks.
The break is short-lived. Tonight, mid- and upper-level clouds increase once again as another frontal system organizes over the Ohio Valley. This system, arriving in the Northeast over the weekend, is expected to bring widespread rainfall starting Saturday afternoon and continuing into Sunday.
Saturday’s setup is complex: a warm front will attempt to lift northward into southern New England, while a blocking high to the northeast delays its progress. This creates a classic cold air damming situation across interior valleys and higher terrain, especially in southern Vermont, New Hampshire, and western Maine. Precipitation may start as a mix of rain, sleet, and even freezing rain in these areas Saturday morning and early afternoon before changing to rain. The potential for a glaze of ice accumulation cannot be ruled out across interior northern New England, which may result in slippery travel on untreated roads and sidewalks.
Further south and along the coast, precipitation will fall as a chilly rain, arriving Saturday afternoon and continuing into Sunday. With deep moisture streaming northward and the front slowly moving, 1 to 1.5 inches of rainfall is likely by Sunday night. While flash flooding is not expected in New England, some urban and poor-drainage flooding could occur, especially where snowmelt and wet antecedent conditions exist.
Sunday may see temperatures briefly spike into the 60s for southern areas—if the warm sector manages to reach into southern New England ahead of the approaching cold front. However, uncertainty remains high. If the front remains hung up farther south or cloud cover lingers, Sunday may stay in the 40s and 50s across much of the region. Regardless, a period of gusty southerly winds is expected Sunday afternoon and evening, with marine and coastal interests advised to monitor for rough seas and increased surf.
Late Sunday into Monday, colder air begins to filter in from the northwest. A reinforcing wave along the front may bring another round of light rain—or even a wintry mix to the higher terrain—as low pressure develops and exits across the Gulf of Maine. By Tuesday, a potent cold front drops in from Canada, potentially setting up a brief period of accumulating snow showers, especially in the mountains of Vermont, New Hampshire, and Maine. Cold Canadian high pressure then settles in midweek, with well below normal temperatures and the first taste of true spring chill across the region.
