This winter hasn’t exactly been “big storm” country so far – but January is poised to shake things up. When you step back and look at the atmosphere from 30,000 feet, what matters is where the cold and warm air clash. The stronger the contrast, the more likely storm development becomes. And that clash looks set to ramp up – especially in the middle third of the month.
We begin with a relative relaxation of the cold across New England while warmth spreads across much of the nation. But as we head into around the 10–11th, again near the 14–15th, and potentially 16–17th, the jet stream digs, the warm/cold contrast tightens, and the storm track taps multiple moisture sources – the Pacific, the Gulf, and the Atlantic. That’s the recipe for bigger systems than we’ve seen to date. The key question isn’t “storm or no storm,” it’s rain vs. snow, which hinges on how much warmth is drawn north right over New England for each event.
Push into late month and the pattern flattens some – but watch the hemispheric cold. The deepest cold starts to recollect on our side of the pole, opening the door to late-month into early-February shots of punishing cold.
Temperatures: With mild spells early and the cold reloading later, near-normal overall for central/southern New England; a tilt cooler closer to the Canadian border.
Precipitation: The storm track favors higher totals north of us (Great Lakes belt). Southern New England can still tally near-normal precipitation, but interestingly, we may have a better shot at above-normal snowfall than above-normal liquid – thanks to the mid-month setup. For context: Boston’s January normal is 3.21″ of liquid; that’s a high bar to clear.
Timing risk window: Jan 10–11, 14–15, 16–17 (give or take a day). Multiple chances – small track/temperature shifts will decide who sees plowable snow vs. a cold rain.
Early month: Relaxed cold; warmer influence gains ground.
Mid-month: Stormier with stronger warm/cold clashes and better moisture taps (Pacific/Gulf/Atlantic). Potentially the most interesting run of the winter so far.
Late month: Pattern trends colder and drier again, with the possibility of more severe cold arriving as we step toward February.
As always, we’ll dial in storm tracks, rain/snow lines, and timing in the daily forecasts and Insights videos.
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