Pattern Predictions:
Polar Vortex Splinters, Not As Cold To Begin February

A lobe of the polar vortex is spilling south, plunging much of the country into a deep freeze and putting New England squarely in the cold crosshairs Friday night through the weekend. We’ll also stay close to several storm tracks: a southern U.S. blockbuster that likely slides south of us Sunday into Monday (but could clip our area), a fast midweek dip next week, and then an early-February setup that may favor renewed storminess if warmth tries to surge back and fight the lingering cold.

The cold shot: bona fide Arctic

Stratospheric warming has splintered the polar vortex, dropping a chunk into the U.S. and driving temperatures 20–40° below average from the Upper Midwest into New England late week into the weekend. For us, that translates to:

  • Fri night–Sun: brutally cold; subzero actual temps in northern New England, single digits south; wind chills -10° to -20° in many interior/northern zones.

  • Sun AM & Mon AM: widespread subzero readings (light wind helps northern valleys Sunday, but it’s still bitter).

  • Next week: we moderate into teens/20s for many, still below normal, before a potential late-period bump toward near/above average as the polar air reorganizes. So we’ll leave the door open for potentially “milder” air to kick off the month of February

Storm windows we’re watching

  • Sun–Mon (southern storm): The crippling system for the South/Mid-Atlantic passes south/east of us, but we’re near the northern fringe. A slight northward nudge could bring accumulating snow to southern/eastern New England.

  • Jan 27–28: a fast, clipper-style dip—light snow chances.

  • Early February: guidance hints at a negatively tilted trough nearby as some warmth tries to reassert. That “battle zone” can focus storminess.

Big national story

The same pattern driving our cold supports a historic southern U.S. storm with significant icing and heavy snow Friday–Sunday from Texas to the Mid-Atlantic. We stay north of the worst, but it’s the reason we’re tracking that northern fringe Sunday–Monday.

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