Wednesday Noyes’ Notes/1°Outside Today: Record Warmth and a Busy Breeze

Matt Noyes remembers during his years in TV news that weather was hard to come by the morning after elections, and when you could find it, it was abbreviated.  NOT HERE!  In our 1DegreeOutside “digital first” world, weather is our jam – and we bring you the Only Forecast You Need to Know…For All Seasons!  So, get spun up on record warmth ahead for today in New England and grab Noyes’ Notes for the “big ideas” Matt and Danielle Noyes have for the days ahead.  Of course, if you’re hankering for a deeper dive into the weather forecast over the next several days, click here for our Tuesday Insights video, still very much applicable this morning and set to be updated to our homepage and the homescreen of our free Noyes’ 1DegreeOutside Weather app again later this morning!

REMINDER!  With the brush fire danger continuing very high and smoke blowing through many areas, we continue our continuous video stream of our latest videos plus real-time updating maps of air quality, humidity, wind and fire spread conditions on our Livestream page linked here, which is also found linked at the bottom of Noyes’ 1DegreeOutside Weather app homescreen, as well as on our YouTube Channel here, or Twitch Channel here.

National Meteorological Summary

A complex weather pattern will continue unfolding across the U.S. as heavy rain and thunderstorms progress eastward through the Mississippi Valley and into the Ohio Valley, bringing localized flooding risks. Meanwhile, the western states face a potent winter storm with mountain snow and strong winds from the Northern Rockies to the Four Corners region. An upper-level trough amplifying over the western U.S. will support this winter weather event, likely persisting through the end of the week. Gusty winds combined with low humidity will also keep fire danger elevated in southern California.

Of particular concern in the Southeast, Tropical Storm Rafael is strengthening and is projected to reach hurricane status as it moves northwest into the Gulf of Mexico. While the storm will stay west of Florida, outer rainbands may impact the Florida Keys and parts of the Florida Peninsula today, potentially causing squally conditions and a low-end tornado risk. Finally, record-breaking warmth spreads across the central and eastern U.S., with temperatures expected to soar well above average from the Great Lakes to New England, aided by strong southerly winds ahead of an approaching cold front.

Northeast Weather Story

Overview: The Northeast, and particularly New England, will experience an unusually warm day today, with temperatures expected to climb well above seasonal averages and reach record levels in many locations. This warmth is driven by a dominant ridge of high pressure positioned off the East Coast, funneling warm southerly air northward. Alongside this, southwesterly winds will gust up to 30 mph at times, adding a dry and gusty component that will keep fire weather concerns heightened, especially in areas like Connecticut, where a Red Flag Warning is in effect. By late tonight, a cold front will sweep across the region, delivering a brief period of scattered showers and a reduction in temperatures, though minimal rain is expected in most areas.

Detailed Forecast:

• Today (Wednesday):
  Temperatures across New England will soar well above average, with most locations in southern New England expected to reach the upper 70s, and areas in the Connecticut River Valley and parts of interior Massachusetts and Rhode Island approaching 80 degrees. These temperatures could tie or break previous records for November 6. Urban areas such as Boston and Hartford are among the most likely to set new high marks. Farther north, into Vermont, New Hampshire, and Maine, highs will still reach the upper 60s to low 70s, with the warmest conditions occurring in downsloping areas like the Champlain Valley, though if Portland, ME, can reach 75 degrees, that would tie your all-time November warm record!Winds will also be a notable factor today, with sustained southwest winds between 15-20 mph and gusts reaching up to 30 mph, especially over higher terrain and coastal areas. Coupled with relative humidity values dropping into the 40-50% range, fire danger will be elevated across Connecticut, Massachusetts, and Rhode Island, where fuels are already dry from a prolonged lack of significant rain.
• Tonight:
  As the cold front pushes through the region during the late evening hours, a band of scattered, light showers will accompany it, primarily affecting areas north and west of the Boston metro area. Showers are expected to be brief and light, with rainfall amounts generally staying under 0.10 inches – perhaps closer to a trace – and primarily limited to New York’s Southern Tier and parts of western Massachusetts and Vermont into the Northern Mountains. Behind the front, cooler and drier air will filter in from the northwest, leading to overnight lows in the 40s for most of New England, though southern coastal areas may retain a bit of warmth with lows in the low 50s.
• Thursday through Friday:
  Cooler air will settle over the Northeast following the front, with highs dropping to the 50s and low 60s, a return toward seasonal norms, though still above normal. Winds will also turn gusty from the northwest on Friday, especially in the higher elevations and Northern New England where some scattered showers are possible in the afternoon, mixed with snowflakes on mountaintops. Another reinforcing shot of cold air will arrive Friday night, bringing temperatures in the 40s in the North Country Saturday, 50s south, and nighttime lows dipping into the 30s for inland areas and 20s in higher elevations by Saturday morning and widespread subfreezing temperatures Saturday night.
• Late Weekend into Early Next Week:
  A frontal system moving through the Great Lakes will bring the next chance for showers to New England, likely beginning Sunday evening or night into Monday. While the exact rainfall amounts and track remain uncertain, this storm could provide the region with much-needed precipitation, though it doesn’t look like heavy rain at this point. Additionally, moisture from Tropical Storm Rafael—if the storm tracks northward as we expect — should eventually increase rainfall potential for the Northeast early next week.